Oil prices to recover, says BHP

Supply and demand fundamentals will see oil prices recover in two years, but gas will take longer, according to BHP's petroleum chief.

An oil well in Montana

BHP Billiton is warning of an oil price spike despite an over-supply and plunging prices this year. (AAP)

Cheap oil prices will not last for long, with significant rises to come in two to three years because of a lack of new discoveries, BHP Billiton's petroleum boss says.

Equally weak natural gas prices will take longer to bounce back though, according to industry leaders attending Australia's largest oil and gas conference.

The predictions on gas are good news for consumers, particularly manufacturers, but not the energy companies that have invested an estimated $75 billion on three new liquefied natural gas projects in Queensland that about to come online.

Weak global gas prices are a also blow for federal government coffers, already reeling from a plunging iron ore price.

Oil prices have dived from more than $US100 per barrel a year ago to as low as $US46 earlier in 2015, though LNG is shaping as far more important to Australia's economy.

Deloitte vice chairman of oil and gas John England expects the US benchmark natural gas price to stay depressed at $US5 per million British thermal units until at least 2020.

BHP's Tim Cutt, also speaking at the Australian Petroleum & Exploration Association conference, agrees.

He said he believes the oil price will recover much more quickly than it did during the more than decade-long slump between the mid-1980s and 2000, until China's demand soared.

The "over-supply" in the oil industry was very small and would be more than offset by the fact new discoveries in the last two decades were less than half the 30 billion-plus barrels a year currently consumed, Mr Cutt said.

Gas prices will be dragged up with it, given gas and oil are often found together, he said.

Andrew Smith, the Australian chairman of energy giant Shell, which is completing a $91 billion takeover of BG and its Queensland LNG interests, said he was confident of global energy demand rising in line with the population.

Federal industry and science Minister Ian Macfarlane said he believed LNG could supplement the loss of revenue from iron ore.

Australia's LNG export value is projected to grow from $18.2 billion this year to $46.7 billion in 2019/20.

But he wants the NSW government to change its tough regulations on fracking and coal seam gas.

Australia has plenty of gas to meet domestic demand but the federal government wants to make it easier for projects to be approved, he said.

"If the argument is based on science and fact, NSW will follow Queensland and see $60 billion in investment, 31,000 jobs and 5,000 farmers become much richer than before they signed up to co-existence agreements on coal seam gas," Mr Macfarlane said.


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Source: AAP


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