World oil prices could drop next year as higher OPEC output coupled with increased shale production risks oversupplying the market, analysts say.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday agreed to hold its crude production ceiling at 30 million barrels a day, citing the balance between world oil supply and demand following a meeting in Vienna.
But OPEC production could increase as Iraq and Iran look to export more crude after falls in recent years. Libyan oil supplies may also recover from a plunge in output.
The cartel, with a dozen member nations from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, pumps out about a third of the world's oil, with the bulk coming from top crude producer Saudi Arabia.
OPEC on Wednesday said "although world oil demand is forecast to increase during 2014, this will be more than offset by the projected increase in non-OPEC supply" amid a boom in oil and gas being extracted from North American shale rock.
OPEC secretary-general Abdullah el-Badri refused to be drawn on the prospect of lower oil prices caused by higher output.
Analysts said that while higher supplies could push down benchmark oil prices, now trading at an average of $US100 ($A111.02) a barrel - in turn weighing on OPEC revenues - solid demand would continue to lend support.
"I still see (Brent oil) prices ranging between 95 and 115 (US) dollars for most of the next year," said Jason Schenker, chief economist at consultants Prestige Economics.
"The global economy is improving modestly and global oil demand growth is poised to rise, especially with improvements in emerging markets next year and 2015."
Schenker pointed to the possibility of "a lot more oil coming on the market" should economic sanctions on Iran be lifted.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said this week Iran would be able to "immediately" export four million barrels a day once sanctions were lifted in the wake of the international deal to roll back its nuclear program.
Independent energy expert Cornelia Meyer said lower crude futures were not a certainty.
"I'm very sceptical because we will still see Asian economies growing," she said.
"I'm very sceptical that this big increase (in output) is really coming because when I look at Iraq, the increase is going to be much smaller because the security situation is not there."
Iraqi Oil Minister Abdelkarim al-Luaybi this week said his country hoped to export 3.4 million barrels a day of crude oil next year, including 400,000 barrels a day from Iraqi Kurdistan, as it looks to recover from years of bloodshed.
This compares with exports of 2.38 million barrels a day in November.
