Many of the winners who will take home an Oscar on Sunday have long been forecast, their triumph made seemingly self-evident after months of anticipation. That is, except for one little category: best picture.
Even in a particularly lengthy awards season (the Academy Awards were pushed back slightly for the Olympics), and despite the tireless analysis of an ever-swelling Oscar blogosphere, no one really knows which film is going to take the night's biggest award.
This Oscars, more than any in years, will go down to the wire.
Of the nine best picture nominees, the front-runners are widely considered to be Alfonso Cuaron's 3-D spectacle Gravity, Steve McQueen's historical odyssey 12 Years a Slave and David O Russell's corruption comedy American Hustle.
The industry guild awards, usually the most predictive honours, have only muddied the waters.
Actors, the largest branch of the Academy of Motion Pictures, have been most enthusiastic for Hustle. The Screen Actors Guild awarded it their top honour.
Just as Russell's Silver Linings Playbook did in 2013, American Hustle managed the very rare feat of landing nominations in all four acting categories (for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper).
Cuaron and Gravity won at the Directors Guild. The Producers Guild couldn't even decide: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied for its top prize.
12 Years a Slave also won best picture at the Golden Globes and at Britain's BAFTA Awards.
Is history any guide? In 2013, the academy was also faced with a choice between a historical epic centered on slavery (Lincoln) and a 1970s caper (Argo) and it went for Ben Affleck's more ebullient option. American Hustle shares a lot with Argo, including its wardrobe.
But this year, the weight of 12 Years a Slave is suspected to be impossible to deny. The Gurus o' Gold poll of Oscar onlookers by film blog Movie City News has nine of 15 analysts predicting McQueen's drama. The others chose Gravity, which all agree will clean up in technical categories like visual effects and cinematography.
Awards for either film (both of which premiered in September at the Telluride Film Festival within days of each other) could mean Oscar history. If the Mexican filmmaker Cuaron takes best director, as he's expected to, he'll be the first Latino winner in the category.
Similarly, were the British McQueen to win best director, he'd be the first black filmmaker to win. And if 12 Years a Slave wins best picture, it will be the first time a film directed by a black filmmaker wins the academy's top honour.
Such landmarks of diversity would be welcome for the academy, whose approximately 6000 members are overwhelmingly older white men. A 2012 study by The Los Angeles Times found that Oscar voters are almost 94 per cent white and 77 per cent male. African Americans, the Times found, make up about two per cent of the academy, and Latinos are less than two per cent. Voters (who keep membership for life) have a median age of 62.
The academy is trying to change that, and has recently opened up its ranks to hundreds of new members. Sunday's ceremony will be the first for new president, Cheryl Boone Isaacs, the academy's first black president.
So as the make-up of the academy gradually shifts, the awards it picks could, too. This year's best picture race offers stark choices between your big box-office crowd-pleaser (Gravity), your hard-to-watch history lesson (12 Years) and your actors-having-a-ball party (American Hustle).
Whichever film wins will crown not just a razor-thin race (Harvey Weinstein has called it "the most competitive season I've ever seen"), but a particularly strong best-picture field in a year roundly hailed as an excellent one for movies.
Also nominated is Spike Jonze's futuristic romance Her, Alexander Payne's black-and-white road trip Nebraska, Martin Scorsese's financial meltdown The Wolf of Wall Street, the Texas AIDS drama Dallas Buyers Club and the family history investigation Philomena.
It's only fitting that a movie year so full of drama should end as a nail-biter.
* The 86th Academy Awards ceremony will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday March 2. The event will be broadcast live in Australia on the Nine Network from 12.30pm (AEDT) on Monday.
CONTENDERS FOR MAIN ACADEMY AWARDS
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale for American Hustle
Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams for American Hustle
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Judi Dench for Philomena
Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
June Squibb for Nebraska
BEST DIRECTOR
David O Russell for American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Alexander Payne for Nebraska
Steve McQueen for 12 Years A Slave
Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams for The Book Thief
Steven Price for Gravity
William Butler and Owen Pallett for Her
Alexandre Desplat for Philomena
Thomas Newman for Saving Mr Banks
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Bruce Broughton and Dennis Spiegel for Alone Yet Not Alone from Alone Yet Not Alone
Pharrell Williams for Happy from Despicable Me 2
Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez for Let It Go from Frozen
Karen O and Spike Jonze for The Moon Song from Her
U2 for Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight
Billy Ray for Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena
John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell for American Hustle
Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack for Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze for Her
Bob Nelson for Nebraska
