Denis Pagan can see Richmond's long AFL premiership drought ending against Adelaide, provided Jack Riewoldt has the better of the Crows' defence.
The two-time North Melbourne premiership coach has given his thoughts on the pros and cons of the grand final combatants in a lengthy Facebook post.
He tipped the Tigers by a goal, saying their tougher run through the finals will hold them in good stead.
But Pagan, never a fan of what he called "media street" during his coaching career, worries about the attention being lavished on Richmond.
He is also a big fan of the Adelaide midfield, saying it is just as strong as Richmond's, and is worried about the lack of a backup ruckman for the Tigers if Toby Nankervis is injured.
But Pagan sees Riewoldt as the potential difference.
"For Richmond to win Jack Riewoldt has to fire, he must kick three or four goals and Josh Caddy to chip in for a couple as well," he said.
Pagan also noted that Richmond were 17th for inside 50s last year, when they plummeted out of the top eight, but this year are third.
Not one Adelaide or Richmond player has grand final experience and Pagan said the key will be to control their emotions.
He remembered star North on-baller Anthony Stevens not taking that advice early in the 1996 grand final, which they eventually won.
"I would always tell my players in the final moments before they ran out onto the ground in the grand final to suck in the emotion," Pagan said.
"Be cool, calm and calculating, contest by contest, minute by minute, very quick disposal in the early stages of the game and no silly undisciplined free kicks at the start.
"I remember ... Stevens giving away silly frees at the start of the 1996 grand final because he was emotionally over the top. The Kangas were behind at quarter time."
Pagan calls Richmond an irresistible force, but has grave concerns about the media attention on them.
"I don't believe any side in the AFL or VFL for that matter has had so much spoken about them, printed about them or filmed about them as they have prior to a grand final," he said.
"Will their players have played their grand final in their minds and thoughts before they get out onto the oval?"
Overall, Pagan thinks Richmond will break their 37-year premiership drought - just.
"Having discussed my pros and cons my selection in this year's grand final is Richmond by six points, but gee Jack you have to fire," he said.
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