Pain for consumers as Aussie dollar falls

The falling Australian dollar is good news for business and government but means higher prices for consumers.

Like the captain of a sinking ship, the days of cheaper petrol, electronics, clothing and overseas travel will go down with the falling Australian dollar.

The Aussie has spent much of the last two years above parity with the US dollar, peaking in July 2011 at 110 US cents.

It began its descent in May and has since hovered around the low 90s, sometimes reaching a three-year low of 90 US cents.

The higher local currency has been great for consumers, but not so good for business and government.

Although the Aussie is still pretty high compared to the long-term average of 75 US cents, the pain has already begun for consumers, particularly at the bowser where petrol prices have recently reached five-year highs.

Consumers typically like a strong currency, says JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters.

"A higher currency means prices for imported products typically come down - electronics, clothing, petrol and travel overseas are a lot cheaper," Mr Walters said.

"As the currency comes down, consumer confidence generally sinks.

"Petrol invariably goes up because the currency is weaker and prices for computers, televisions, clothing, cars, a lot of those prices go up, and consumers don't like that very much."

Mr Walters said JP Morgan expected the Australian dollar to get down to 88 US cents by March, and while that does mean even higher petrol prices, it's good news for the economy overall.

"A lower currency helps the business community and it helps government because the government collects more tax revenue from companies who have got offshore earnings," Mr Walters said.

"The currency going up over the last few years really hurt government revenue collections."

Australian National Retailers Association chief executive Margy Osmond said it would take about six to 12 months for the effects of the falling currency to work their way through the retail supply chain.

"Supply contracts are negotiated ahead of today's changes to the currency," Mrs Osmond said.

"It's more likely retailers will begin to see some of the effects come through in the next round of purchasing, where they will have to make the choice between trying to increase prices for customers or see a decrease in their profit margin."

On the bright side, the lower currency makes Australia more attractive for overseas and domestic travellers and encourages Australians to buy locally, she said.

"For the consumer, the decreasing dollar means there's now less reason to look off-shore for discretionary purchases, something Aussie retailers will be pleased about," she said.

Tourism Australia managing director Andrew McEvoy said domestic and inbound tourism had been growing for three years in spite of the strong dollar.

The recent fall meant international visitors would have more money to spend when they got here, he said.


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Source: AAP


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