Petrol price spike to lift inflation

Steep petrol prices are expected to have played a major role in a June quarter inflation rise, though interest rates are set to remain on hold.

A motorist refuels his car at a service station in Brisbane.

Falling fuel prices are expected to have held back inflation in the December quarter. (AAP)

Inflation is expected to remain in check despite a sharp rise in petrol prices, encouraging the Reserve Bank to leave interest rates on hold.

The consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to have risen 0.8 per cent in the three months to June for an annual rate of 1.7 per cent, an AAP survey of 12 economists shows.

That is still below the RBA's target inflation range of two to three per cent.

The June quarter inflation, due for released on Wednesday, follows a rise of just 0.2 per cent in the March quarter, for an annual rate of 1.3 per cent, the weakest result in almost three years.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe said the biggest contributor to headline inflation in recent months has been a sharp rise in petrol prices.

"They've gone up by about 12 per cent in the June quarter," he said.

"That's just an unwinding of the big drops in the March quarter - swings and roundabouts I'm afraid."

The drop in the Aussie dollar over the past 12 months may also be affecting import prices, which in turn feed into retail prices, he said.

Mr Blythe tipped CPI to return to the Reserve Bank's two to three per cent target band by the September quarter, increasing the likelihood that the cash rate will be left unchanged for now.

The median forecast for underlying inflation, which excludes volatile price movements such as petrol, is 0.55 per cent in the June quarter and 2.2 per cent over the year to June.


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Source: AAP


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