Not since John Howard has an Australian prime minister been able to win a second term.
That's the challenge facing Malcolm Turnbull as he weighs up whether to pull the trigger on an early election some time later this year or wait until 2019.
Turnbull told colleagues just before the rise of parliament for 2017 that 2018 would be a year in which the Liberal-National coalition focuses on its two "core strengths" of economic management and national security.
Opinion polls have consistently given the Liberals a lead over Labor in terms of who is best placed to deliver a better economy and deliver on national security.
The prime minister's advisers know education, health and welfare are seen by voters as Labor strengths.
One of Turnbull's key messages in 2018 will be: There can be no adequate funding for schools, universities, hospitals and pensions without the right economic settings in place.
Another is that the Turnbull government has delivered on jobs - 355,000 jobs in the past year and an unemployment rate at its lowest level since early 2013.
Central to the coalition's economic pitch will be personal tax cuts in the May budget and child-care fee relief coming in July.
It's hoped action on electricity and gas supply and demand will also flow through to cheaper power bills, but that is by no means guaranteed given the complexity of Australia's national energy market.
But while both major parties will want to focus on bread-and-butter issues, other issues will joust for attention.
The citizenship saga, which began in mid-2017, still has some way to play out.
The High Court is dealing with the cases of Labor MP David Feeney and senator Katy Gallagher, and could be given other referrals in the opening weeks of parliament in February.
Feeney is by no means guaranteed of holding his Melbourne seat of Batman under challenge by the Greens, whittling away at Labor's numbers in the lower house.
Gallagher's case is important because of the potential implications for other Labor MPs, whose citizenship renunciations were in the pipeline but not given the rubber stamp by foreign authorities in time.
The case of Jacqui Lambie, who lost her Tasmanian Senate seat due to dual citizenship, is complicated by the fact her replacement could also be disqualified and the seat could fall to One Nation.
Turnbull is hoping a pre-Christmas reshuffle will shore up his support within the party room.
But some will be keen to remind him of his benchmark of 30 Newspoll losses in a row, which he used in part as justification to oust Tony Abbott.
Not only coalition colleagues and Labor will be on his back.
State elections, which typically involve much Canberra-bashing and counter-offensive government pork-barrelling, are due in Tasmania and South Australia in March and Victoria in November.
They are likely to keep a lid on thoughts of an early House of Representatives and half-Senate election, which can be held as early as August 4.
