Dr Rachel Bloul from ANU's School of Sociology analyses the impact that the recent shootings in France may have on already tense relations between Muslims, non-Muslims and Jews and on the looming presidential elections.
Q. Less than one month from the beginning of election campaigning, do you think that the shootings will move the focus of the presidential campaign right – sparking anger at perceived laxism towards extremism and a call for a security crackdown - or left - leading to calls for greater tolerance, understanding and national unity?
A. It might well depend on how politicians and media explain, and comment on, the events themselves. In particular, I would want to stress that the killer does not have a unique goal in mind –say, killing Jews; but in fact has shot a number of targets among whom three elite soldiers of North African Muslim origins, one of French West Indies origin and finally a Jewish professor and his two young children as well as a young Jewish girl attending the same school.
One suspects that the killer who claimed to be a Jihadist is targeting 'enemies of Islam' as he understands it thus he would put in the same category his French Muslim victims as 'traitors' because they belong to the French army and Jews. Still the diversity of victims offers commentators an opportunity to diffuse questions of French Muslims' potential hostility to French Jews and to call for national unity. Much may also depend on how Marine Le Pen plays the 'fundamentalist' card.
Q. Some analysts have been suggesting that the attacks might force presidential candidates to tone down their populist discourse. Do you agree?
A. The reactions so far seem to go in that direction. President Nicolas Sarkozy and socialist candidate Francois Hollande are playing this very carefully. Sarkozy's comments seem to indicate he wants to stress reactions in favour of national solidarity and Hollande has refrained from pointing out Sarkozy's previous quasi-Islamophobic comments for fear of appearing to disgracefully exploit the events. Marine Le Pen has easier choices: she can –and does-- stress that the Front National (FN) had 'rightfully' denounced insecurity and fundamentalism.
Q. Before the shootings, many in France had complained that the presidential campaign was failing to address issues like unemployment, the economy and France's place in the world. Do you think that these issues will now be pushed aside even more?
A. Without a doubt, if only because 'insecurity' will be in most people's minds. France never had a school shooting before. There is also the fact that the problems you mention, while thye are of extreme concern to the French people, don't have any obvious solutions and no candidates has been particularly impressive in the way they treat difficult questions of economy, which after all are not uniquely French. Afterall Europe has been in bad economic shape for quite a while, and therefore whose solution exceeds the capacities of a single European country.
Q. Sarkozy had been criticised for claiming that France had 'too many foreigners', and for threatening to pull the country out of Europe's borderless Schengen zone unless lax countries tightened up their borders. Do you think that these recent attacks will now play in Sarkozy's favour?
A.It is quite possible. French papers were mentioning last week that Mr Sarkozy's recent stance on limiting immigration led to some upsurge in opinion polls in his favour. Again, as long as public comments stress neither anti-Semitism (by for example reminding everyone that half the victims were of Muslim origins) nor 'Muslim fundamentalism' (by mentioning the 'lone wolf' profile of this particular killer), one could avoid further division and Sarkozy might see it in his interest. After all he is the president and the people would expect him to behave in a presidential (i.e. 'unifying') manner. And there is the fact that this issue is the bread and butter of Marine Le Pen's party. As her father once said: “People will always prefer the original (the FN) to the imitations (Conservative Right playing the immigration card)”
Q. French far-right hopeful Marine Le Pen has seized on the shootings, warning that "Whole neighbourhoods … have fallen into the clutches of the fundamentalists, weapons are all over the place and foreign funding is pouring in”. Do you think that she will now gain more support?
A. Most probably. And especially because unlike the other frontline candidates (Sarkozy and Hollande), she has nothing to lose by playing this card which is after all part of her usual arsenal.
Q. What about Hollande? What's his position on migrants and Muslims?
A. Hollande is in a difficult position: he cannot denounce Sarkozy's previous inflammatory comments for fear of seeming petty and profiteering. His party's embrace of 'secularism' means that his warnings about Islamophobia must be carefully measured, and because of his party well-known links with some French Jewish associations, he will be expected to denounce anti-Semitism.
I expect him to choose a carefully guarded silence or well measured and vague comments, which he can justify as an attempt not to divide. He will be interesting to follow in the next few days.
Q. Interior minister Claude Guéant has admitted that suspected jihadi serial killer Mohamed Merah had been "followed for years" by the DCRI intelligence service. It has been reported that he had been arrested for bomb making in the southern Afghan province of Kandahar in 2007 but allegedly broke out of jail months later. How do you think this will play with the French people's minds?
A. These 'facts' are controversial in France. It emerges that Mohamed Merah did not break out of jail according to Afghan authorities, but certainly he has been under security services surveillance at least in the last two years. There is some obfuscation of the issue, but I expect the French public to be rather cynical on this particular point.
Q. Some members of the Muslim community say they fear a backlash and increased inter-religious tensions, after the shootings. Do you think there will be a backlash?
A. That will depend on how Marine Le Pen handles the situation. I am afraid that the other frontline candidates have their hands more or less tied (or is it their mouths?). She is the one with the most freedom for maneuver. I am not sure how far she will want to push the “We told you so” line.
Q. Keeping in mind the riots that took place over the past few years across France, it would seem that tensions between Muslims and non-Muslims have been escalating. Do you agree and how bad is the situation?
A. Yes, there have been tensions between French Muslims and police/security forces and even the native French public (media have a part of responsibility by showcasing incidents) on the one hand, and between French Muslims and French Jews on the other. Unfortunately, anti-Semitic attacks in France have been growing exponentially in the last few years.
If the present situation becomes played as a uniquely anti-Semitic attack, I am afraid it will increase ALL SORTS of racism and in particular will increase BOTH Islamophobia and anti-Semitism. I often point out to my students that racial/ethnic hatreds are contagious and that many racists put all sorts of 'Others' in the same category sharing an equal hatred for Jews and Muslims.
Q. What do you think could be done to reduce such tensions?
A. It would require undoing the various political manipulation of Islamophobia and anti-immigrant feeling of the recent and not so recent past. A difficult task but maybe this will serve as a wake-up call. At the very least a good start would be rallying French people by stressing how diverse the victims were as mentioned above.
Q. Some members of the Jewish community say they are scared. Some Jews say they have been feeling increasingly uncomfortable living in France over the past few years due to the growing number of Muslim migrants and their attitudes. What's the mood among French Jews at the moment?Is it likely to change? In what way?
A. They are obviously scared. The last generalised murderous attack on Jews in France was in 1982. Israeli newspapers have also been stressing this climate of fear since at least 2004 when Ariel Sharon called French Jews to take refuge in Israel 'as quickly as possible'. It is true that French Jews have recently become closer to Israel and some decided to emigrate.
A lot will depend on how the situation is handled publicly. There is a possibility that the upcoming elections may encourage irresponsible handling, though so far politicians at the very least have been cautious. Both Sarkozy and Hollande have interest in playing down the events and call for French unity. As I said earlier Marine Le Pen does not share this interest. I would be watching her carefully.
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