Queensland Treasurer Jackie Trad appears to have ticked all the boxes with her first budget, but needs to be wary of overspending amid uncertainty over GST allocation and resource royalties.
Coal and gas have pumped an extra billion dollars into the budget bottom line for 2017/18 to $4 billion, gifting the new treasurer an operating surplus of $1.512 billion.
With new gas field projects being announced and the resource sector remaining strong, royalties will continue to flow into the state's coffers, even if it's not at the levels seen at the height of the mining boom.
However, as has been seen in Queensland and other states, expecting the boom to continue indefinitely is a fraught prospect.
Compounding the issue is the uncertainty over the allocation of GST, with the federal government already confirming Queensland will see $400 million less in GST revenue in 2018/19.
The Commonwealth is yet to respond to the Productivity Commission's report into GST allocation, with fears up to $1.8 billion could be lost from Queensland's slice of the pie.
If that were to happen, it would rapidly turn the small surplus forecast for 2018/19 into a deficit, forcing the government to borrow more money to fund its infrastructure spends.
Despite moves to pay down debt, Queensland's debt level will hit $83 billion by 2022, although the treasurer argues the general government debt figure of $30 billion is the more relevant figure.
Ms Trad insists the "borrowing to build" strategy is a responsible one, with governments using debt to fund infrastructure which also drives jobs and the economy.
However, in doing so they gamble on revenue continuing at levels which allow it to service that debt
That gamble has paid off for the last few years, but the Labor government needs to put plans in place if its luck runs out.
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