Rate cut chances plunge with jobless rate

Soaring employment numbers and a five-month low for the jobless rate should help keep the Reserve Bank from slashing interest rates next month.

Employment advertising in a newspaper

(AAP) Source: AAP

A surprise drop in the jobless rate has all but guaranteed interest rates will remain steady before Christmas.

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.9 per cent in October, its lowest point since May and well below the 6.2 per cent that economists had forecast.

Meanwhile, the total number of people with jobs surged by 58,600 in the month, nearly four times what economists had expected.

The Aussie dollar jumped over 71 US cents in reaction to the data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday as markets downgraded expectations of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank.

But economists are sceptical about the reliability of the figures given how far out they were from expectations.

JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters says October enjoyed the strongest gain in jobs in about three-and-a-half years.

"The mix is also very good, with most of the job gains in full-time employment, while hours worked across the whole employment market went up (by a record) 1.2 per cent," he said.

Full-time employment rose by 40,000, while the number of part-time jobs was up 18,600.

"It ends the near-term debate about whether the Reserve Bank will be lowering interest rates any time soon," Mr Walters said.

"They certainly won't be on this evidence."

The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or actively looking for work, rose to 65.0 per cent, from 64.9 per cent in September.

But CommSec chief economist Craig James has doubts about the reliability of the data, predicting there could be some payback next month.

The ABS had to make large revisions to its employment figures in late 2014 amid inconsistencies in calculating the seasonally-adjusted numbers.

"Still, economic momentum continues to pick up, underpinned by strong home building," Mr James said.

"Home building approvals are at record highs, together with tourist arrivals and car sales."

A total of 315,000 jobs have been added over the past year - the strongest gain in seven-and-a-half years.

Mr James put the strong lift in employment down to improved confidence levels, low interest rates, government stimulus for small businesses and strong house construction.


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Source: AAP


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