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Rates seen on hold as housing heats up

The central bank is expected to hold rates at a record low of 1.5 per cent on Tuesday as it waits in hope for regulatory measures to cool the property market.

Pedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Thursday's crucial jobs figures could add to the Reserve Bank's headaches. (AAP)

The Reserve Bank of Australia is not likely to move on rates this year, as it waits for the results of new regulatory measures to cool the housing market while also hoping for economic growth to continue.

All 12 economists surveyed by AAP expect the central bank to leave the cash rate steady at a record low of 1.5 per cent at its April board meeting on Tuesday.

Last month, Governor Philip Lowe indicated that the best way to maintain growth and lift low inflation back into its two to three per cent target band would be to hold rates this year.

QIC chief economist Matthew Peter said the RBA had little room to move.

"The RBA can't cut rates for fear of further fuelling an overblown housing market and the RBA can't hike rates due to fear of depressing an already tepid domestic economy," Dr Peter said.

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"With the RBA sidelined, determination of Australian financial conditions is falling predominantly on the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) and the US Federal Reserve."

The earliest move is expected to be in the fourth quarter of 2017, with only one economist expecting rates to go lower.

Citi economists said the Reserve Bank was wedged between the temptation to boost growth and inflation by cutting rates and needing to maintain or raise rates to keep investor home loans in check.

Overall housing approvals leapt to 8.3 per cent in February, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed on Monday, far above the market forecast of a 1.5 per cent fall.

The banking regulator on Friday capped interest-only mortgage lending, telling lenders to limit higher risk interest-only loans to 30 per cent of new residential mortgages.

The Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 1430 AEDT on Tuesday.


2 min read

Published

Source: AAP



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