Rates seen on hold as RBA bides time

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave the cash rate at a record low of 1.5 per cent, but could be more upbeat on prospects for the economy.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a 14th straight month as it waits for signs of a gradual improvement in economic growth to play out more clearly.

All 14 economists surveyed by AAP are confident the central bank will leave the cash rate steady at a record low of 1.5 per cent at its October board meeting on Tuesday.

RBA governor Philip Lowe last month said an expected lift in interest rates globally did not have automatic implications for Australia but would flow through to the local market over time.

The central bank has continued to maintain expectations for economic growth at an annual three per cent rate for the next few years, despite growth so far trending below that level.

Despite the current stalemate, the recent strength in the labour market means the market is reassessing its expectations on rate increases, according to National Australia Bank economist Tapas Strickland.

"While the RBA will almost certainly remain on hold, the post meeting statement is again likely to be slightly more positive given further strong employment figures in August," Mr Strickland said.

"Governor Lowe's recent speech played up this positivity, stating the economy was on course."

Australia's economy added a higher than expected 54,200 jobs in August, underscoring an improvement in labour market conditions that has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs over the past six months.

An increase in job vacancies also points to continued strong employment growth, with analysts forecasting 250,000 in new jobs in the coming year.

The RBA appears to be slowly setting the scene for the possibility of cash rate rises, but will probably need more clarity in data, HSBC's chief economist for ANZ, Paul Bloxham, said.

"The challenge remains as to whether this lift in growth and employment will deliver a pick-up in wages growth and inflation," Mr Bloxham said.

"The next consumer price inflation print, which is due to be published on October 25, will be the next key number on this front."

Most of the economists surveyed expect the RBA to start lifting rates by the middle of next year or later.

The Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 1430 AEDT on Tuesday.


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Source: AAP



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