Rates to stay on hold despite falling $A

The RBA may be pleased with the Australian dollar's recent fall but the cash rate is set to remain unchanged for now.

The Reserve Bank is not expected to raise its interest rate until at least early 2015, but that might come sooner if the Australian dollar keeps falling.

All 13 economists surveyed by AAP forecast the cash rate will remain at 2.5 per cent after the RBA's board meeting on Tuesday, and for the rest of 2014.

Eight of those are predicting a hike in the first half of 2015, which would be the first interest rate rise in over four years.

Since the RBA board's last meeting, the Australian dollar has fallen six per cent to as low as 86.63 cents.

When the currency was above 90 US cents not so long ago, Governor Glenn Stevens said it was too high to be of any help to the economy.

Commonwealth Bank economist John Peters said the focus on Tuesday will be on what the RBA says, if anything, about the local currency.

"The fall in the Australian dollar is a very welcome development for the central bank and will help the transition to non-mining led growth," he said.

"It also gives the RBA more scope to hike rates amid rising concerns about the elevated level of investor activity in the housing market."

The central bank is concerned soaring house prices and rapidly growing investor activity could pose a risk to banking stability and the economy, and has raised the possibility of changing regulations to curb risky lending to property investors.

HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said a continued fall in the Australian dollar would help to boost economic growth, leaving room for action aimed at the property sector.

"A lower local currency means more Australian dollars for any given amount of commodity exports. It will also help to improve Australia's competitiveness," he said.

"Assuming the Australian dollar stays at its lower new level, or falls further, it should see an upgrade to the RBA's growth and inflation forecasts published in early November.

"If this occurs, as we expect it will, then the RBA could start to use hints about its future cash rate settings to rein in the housing price boom."

Mr Peter also said the falling local dollar had put an end to any speculation about further rate cuts by the RBA.


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