RBA expected to leave rates on hold

All 16 economists surveyed by AAP expect the cash rate to remain steady in August, and 12 are tipping no move this year.

Falling commodity prices and turbulence on China's share markets is not expected to be enough for the Reserve Bank to deliver another rate cut.

All 16 economists surveyed by AAP expect the cash rate to remain steady when the RBA board meets on Tuesday, and 12 are tipping no move this year.

This is confirmed by the market only pricing in a nine per cent chance of a cut at the August RBA meeting.

"Iron ore is a little lower, China's a bit more volatile, but there's really not much a rate cut can do about all that," TD Securities chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist Annette Beacher said.

The Reserve Bank cut rates to an historic low of two per cent in May, citing weak business investment and slowing Chinese growth.

While most indicators sensitive to interest rates are improving, business investment is still lagging, Ms Beacher said.

"The RBA has said plenty of times that borrowing costs are not the problem, it's an animal spirits problem," Ms Beacher said.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens has previously highlighted a lack of `animal spirits', or a willingness to take risks and invest, in the economy.

But a rate cut at this stage wouldn't make much difference and the RBA is a reluctant cutter, Ms Beacher said.

"You might as well save your ammunition for a real crisis," she said.

ANZ head of Australian economics Justin Fabo expects no surprises from the RBA, based on Mr Stevens' recent comments about the economy.

"It's probably going to be pretty plain Jane and not much changed from the month before," Mr Fabo said.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy predicts rates will not rise until the second half of 2016, but said the burden will now be on the economy to perform.

"If we see any sort of weakening in the next few months, the RBA could certainly be back in the game," he said.

Ms Beacher said the focus for Tuesday's RBA meeting would be whether the board's statement flags any change to the outlook for economic growth and inflation, given the Australian dollar's decline.


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Source: AAP


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