RBA letting prior cuts work their magic

The central bank has left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.5 per cent, and some economists say there are no more cuts to come.

Economists are split on whether interest rates will be cut again before the end of the year, after the Reserve Bank kept the cash rate at its record low for a second straight month.

The RBA decided to leave the cash rate at 2.5 per cent to allow previous cuts to continue working their stimulatory powers on the economy.

The decision was widely expected, with all 13 economists surveyed by AAP last week forecasting that the RBA would leave the cash rate on hold.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens said the board judged that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.

Inflation had been consistent with the medium-term target, and the Australian dollar, although recently higher, was still about 10 per cent below its level in April, he said.

Mr Stevens said cash rate cuts since late-2011 had supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values.

"The full effects of these decisions are still coming through, and will be for a while yet," he said.

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said it was unlikely the RBA would deliver further rate cuts.

"There was very little, almost no forward guidance in this statement," Mr Bloxham said.

"They noted the exchange rate had lifted a bit but they don't seem overly concerned about it.

"They noted that sentiment has improved but think it's too soon to judge whether it's going to persist.

"I think the broader point is it does look as though interest rates are getting more of a grip on the housing market and sentiment has lifted.

"If those trends persist, I don't see the RBA cutting rates further."

CommSec chief economist Craig James said the statement showed the RBA was no longer worried about the level of the Australian dollar.

"The election is out of the road and the removal of political uncertainty has already provided a kick to confidence," Mr James said.

Rates were at, or near, the bottom of the cycle, he said.

But JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said another interest rate cut before Christmas was still possible.

"If you look at the statement it is very similar to what we've seen over the past few months, in particular last month," he said.

"The burden is going to be in the economic data and if it deteriorates it will get them over line (for another rate cut)."

The September quarter consumer price index (CPI) will be released on October 23, two weeks before the RBA's November board meeting.

"When you get a soft CPI print, rising unemployment and pretty slow growth, those factors mean the RBA is once again a chance of taking the cash rate lower," Mr Kennedy said.

The Australian dollar rallied above 94 US cents after the RBA's decision on Tuesday.


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Source: AAP


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RBA letting prior cuts work their magic | SBS News