RBA tipped to keep rates on hold for now

Further falls in mortgage interest rates look to be on hold for several months after the RBA held its cash rate steady at two per cent for May.

People walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia

The Reserve Bank is widely expected to leave the cash rate at a record low 1.5 per cent. (AAP)

Interest rates are expected to remain on hold for several months as the Reserve Bank keeps a close eye on a slowing economy, though the next move is still more likely to be a cut.

The RBA has left the cash rate at two per cent following May's quarter of a percentage point cut, and RBA governor Glenn Stevens on Tuesday provided little guidance on any future moves.

The bank would monitor economic and financial conditions in the weeks ahead before considering its rates stance in a month's time, he said.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said the RBA is withholding any talk of possible future rate cuts to spur borrowers into action.

"The hope is that businesses will now start to embrace the stimulus on offer, fearing that if they don't, they will miss out on super low rates," he said.

But the futures market gives the chances of another quarter of a percentage point rate reduction before the end of 2015 as roughly 50-50.

Many economists were disappointed with the RBA's lack of guidance on future moves, particularly after the release of disappointing business investment figures last week, and therefore maintained their expectations of no move until at least late in 2015.

St George senior economist Janu Chan said she believed the RBA could cut further given the weak economic outlook and the comments made in bank's statement announcing its rates decision.

"It does lead us to think that they're on the sidelines for at least the next few months," she said.

Mortgage Choice chief executive officer John Flavell also expects the RBA will leave rates on hold while it monitors the impact of its May rate cut.

"Until such a time as we know what effect the May rate cut has on the economy, there is no reason for the board to pull the rate lever," he said.

The RBA's statement caused the Australian dollar to rise, as some traders had expected an indication the bank was maintaining its easing bias, Thinkforex senior market analyst Matt Simpson said.

The local currency rose to a high of 76.94 US cents after the rates decision, up from 76.29 US cents just before it was announced.

While the Australian dollar had fallen in the second half of May, further depreciation seems likely and necessary because of the significant declines in key commodity prices, Mr Stevens said.


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Source: AAP


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