RBA to mull over sluggish economy

Growth figures this week likely show a sluggish economy but economists are unsure whether the RBA will pre-empt the data with another interest rate cut.

Treasurer Joe Hockey

Treasurer Joe Hockey will have a lot of explaining to do if the RBA cuts the cash rate again. (AAP)

As Treasurer Joe Hockey prepares to release the five-yearly review of challenges facing Australia over the next 40 years, new figures suggest the present is pretty difficult as well.

Manufacturing remains in decline, company profits are weak and businesses are running down their stock on shelves and warehouses rather than ramping up production.

It suggests the December quarter national accounts, due for release on Wednesday, will show the economy still struggling below 3.25 per cent, a rate needed to lift jobs growth.

Economists are at odds over whether the Reserve Bank will pre-empt the growth numbers and make a further cut in the cash rate at Tuesday's monthly board meeting.

Royal Bank of Canada strategist Michael Turner expects a further 25 basis points cut before the budget, but not necessarily now.

"Whilst a cut tomorrow would not shock, our base case remains May," he said.

Financial markets are pricing in a 50/50 chance of a rate cut to an all-time low of two per cent following the reduction to 2.25 per cent in February.

Monday's data showed company gross operating profits fell in the final three months of 2014 to be nearly six per cent down on the year.

Other figures showed manufacturing declined for a third month in a row as weak business and household demand offset the benefits of a lower exchange rate.

"It underlines the importance of using the May budget to provide a boost to domestic activity," Australian Industry Group boss Innes Willox said.

That includes delivering a promised company tax rate cut to 28.5 per cent for all companies.

Business groups are not impressed by Labor's new effort to crackdown on multinational tax loopholes in its first policy announcement in opposition.

The tax package, estimated to raise $1.9 billion in increased revenue, includes tightening of the so-called thin capitalisation rules which allow companies to offset profits against debt-servicing costs in high tax jurisdictions such as Australia to reduce their taxable income.

Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry boss Kate Carnell says Labor's tax changes could make Australia a less attractive place for international investment, pushing new projects offshore and hurting jobs.

Meanwhile, Labor is fuming that Mr Hockey is treating Thursday's intergenerational report as "a cheap political prop" by unusually including a chapter on what the budget would look like under Labor policies.


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Source: AAP


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