RBA unlikely to cut cash rate again

The Reserve Bank is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday and only two are predicting another rate cut.

The Reserve Bank of Australia.

The Reserve Bank is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday. (AAP)

The Reserve Bank is tipped to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday, and most economists are predicting there will be no more rate cuts for the foreseeable future.

All 14 economists surveyed by AAP expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at two per cent at its October meeting, and only three are predicting that there will be another interest rate cut.

Of those surveyed six are predicting the cash rate will be raised late in 2016.

ANZ is predicting a quarter of a percentage point cut in February and another in May, which would take the cash rate down to 1.5 per cent.

They cite slowing economic growth and an expectation that the boost to the domestic economy from housing construction and the lower Australian dollar will wane as reasons why the reductions are needed.

In the past month, global share markets have at times suffered large falls because of worries about the slowing Chinese economy, a major consumer of Australian mining exports.

"While current momentum in Australia's non-mining economy is sufficient to keep the RBA content this year, we see waning support to non-mining growth from housing market activity and the sharply lower Australian dollar next year," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said.

"The economic backdrop we have outlined above points to greater risk that unemployment worsens rather than improves over the next 12-24 months."

However, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans is predicting no moves in the cash rate for the foreseeable future, and says there has been an overreaction to worries about the Chinese economy.

"We are predicting a more stable global environment in 2016," he said.

"The gloom around China will lift particularly as the authorities continue to roll out stimulus."

HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said the falling Australian dollar will save the RBA from cutting the cash rate.

The Australian dollar has dropped 14 US cents since the beginning of the year, and is nine per cent weaker against a basket of currencies representing its major trading partners.


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Source: AAP



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