RBA wants Aussie dollar even lower

The RBA believes the Australian dollar is still too high but it isn't in a mood to cut rates, the minutes from its December board meeting show.

Pedestrians walk past the Reserve Bank of Australia

(AAP Image/Joel Carrett)

The Reserve Bank wants the Australian dollar to fall even further to boost an economy hurt by weaker commodity prices and sagging consumer confidence.

The Australian dollar has fallen five US cents to a four-and-a-half year low of 82 US cents during the past two months.

But the RBA wants it even lower to help an economy hurt by falling commodity prices.

The RBA's December board meeting minutes show the bank believes the dollar is still not low enough to offset the effect of lower prices for Australia's mining exports.

"Members agreed that further exchange rate depreciation was likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy," the minutes said.

Board members also want to keep the RBA's cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent for the foreseeable future, instead preferring a lower exchange rate to give the economy a boost.

The RBA expects local economic growth will stay below trend for the remainder of 2014/15 before gradually picking up pace towards the end of 2016.

However the December 2 board meeting was held the day before the release of the September quarter economic growth figures, which were the weakest in three-and-a-half years.

The disappointing data shocked the market, resulting in some economists changing their forecasts to include interest rate cuts next year.

In an interview last Friday, the RBA governor Glenn Stevens hosed down rate cut speculation, saying the economy was tracking largely as the central bank had expected.

He also expressed his desire for the Aussie to fall to 75 US cents in the new year.

The minutes said while the 2.5 per cent cash rate was aiding the economy, board members acknowledged there were expectations by some of a rate cut.

CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said a significant rise in unemployment or a higher Australian dollar would be the catalysts for a rate cut in 2015, but that is unlikely.

"Job ads are almost nine per cent higher than a year ago and are now holding at 20-month highs," he said.

"In addition, the lift in housing activity will continue to play a significant part in driving activity and employment over the coming year."

JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters was confident the RBA will leave the cash rate steady for most of 2015.

"Our confidence in our base case is reinforced by the weakening currency, which RBA officials have stated is preferable as a means of softening financial conditions, rather than a lower cash rate," he said.


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