RBA weighing up its options

Financial markets widely expect a further interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank in May, although next week's board meeting is still a possibility.

As the Abbott government weighs up its budget options and mulls over its tax and competition reviews, the Reserve Bank has one crucial consideration.

Does it deliver another interest rate cut at next Tuesday's board meeting, wait until May when it would have the latest inflation figures or just sit back feeling it can do no more?

Treasurer Joe Hockey has said his May 12 budget will work hand in hand with the RBA's monetary policy.

The RBA cut its cash rate to an all-time low of 2.25 per cent in February in an attempt to lift a sluggish economy.

Commonwealth Securities chief economist Craig James says the RBA will question whether cutting rates actually boosts confidence and spending rather than just inflating home prices.

"If the Reserve Bank believed that monetary policy has run its course, the focus would shift to the federal government and fiscal stimulus measures," he says.

Financial markets see a 50-50 chance of a rate cut next week while being fully priced for a reduction in May.

JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters believes there are some credible arguments in favour of moving early.

It would be a "positive shock", while the Australian dollar would dip - a long-term objective of RBA officials.

It would also disentangle a decision from the May budget, which Mr Walters expects will include more unpopular savings measures.

But he also believes there are more convincing arguments that favour a May move, such as allowing officials to see the next quarterly CPI report on April 22.

It would also enable the RBA to digest another full round of the monthly economic figures, including the March employment report.

A smattering of new figures on Wednesday painted a mixed picture.

Sydney house prices struck a fresh high in March after jumping three per cent but approvals for the construction of new homes fell 3.2 per cent, the first fall in five months.

Meanwhile, manufacturing remained in the doldrums for the fourth straight month in March, which Australian Industry Group head Innes Willox partly blamed on political uncertainties in Canberra and prior to last weekend's NSW election.

There were also the dampening impacts of further drops in mining construction, the progressive winding down of car plants and subdued business investment in equipment, he said.

National Australia Bank's consumer anxiety index also released on Wednesday found government policy changes were a bigger worry for consumers than the cost of living.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen said the nation has a treasurer who can't keep a consistent message on the economy.

The prime minister and treasurer openly contradict each other on policy, leading to a dysfunctional government, he said.

"Is it any wonder the Australian people have lost confidence in this government's economic management," Mr Bowen told reporters in Adelaide.


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Source: AAP


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