Kevin Rudd has again reminded his Labor colleagues that winning the next election is no guarantee, as the latest Newspoll shows the government losing ground to the opposition.
For the first time since the 2007 federal election, the coalition leads Labor - 41-40 - in primary vote support.
But the government still holds an election-winning lead after preferences, the Newspoll shows.
The prime minister referred to political history when asked whether there was an outside possibility Labor could lose an election, likely later this year.
"There is no guarantee for a first-term government to be re-elected," he told ABC Radio on Tuesday.
"Look what happened to the Hawke government back in 1984, very close-run thing, the Howard government in 1998, a very close-run thing."
The reality was that Mr Abbott would be prime minister if two or three people in 100 changed their vote at the next election, he said.
On Monday, Mr Rudd told the Labor caucus the election year would be tough. It has been nearly 70 years since a first-term government failed to be re-elected.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the polls were a positive beginning to his leadership. "Look, it's encouraging but there's a long way to go," he told reporters in Canberra.
"What I think it does indicate, though, is that the Australian public wants real answers now from their prime minister, they don't want a lot of vague waffle about what might happen in 2050."
Mr Abbott the polls were a sign voters were willing to give the coalition a fair go. "It's a sign people are unhappy at a prime minister who is increasingly all talk and no action," he said.
Liberal backbencher Dennis Jensen, a climate change sceptic, said the poll results vindicated the party's decision to replace Malcolm Turnbull with Mr Abbott.
"Yes, I think clearly it has (been justified)," he told reporters. "The issue on climate change and the ETS (emissions trading scheme) is something that's been troubling us with unity for a while."
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