Soaring commodity prices have delivered Australia's largest-ever trade surplus, which will likely boost corporate profits and wages but economists warn the record uplift won't last.
Fears of a technical recession and possible loss of Australia's triple-A credit rating have receded after the nation's trade surplus surged 72 per cent to $3.5 billion in December, the highest level since records began in 1971, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The massive jump was triggered by a five per cent rise in exports, primarily from higher iron ore and coal prices, and higher export volumes.
Coal exports leapt by 14 per cent to $5.8 billion, while ore and mineral exports also surged 10 per cent, to $7.7 billion.
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said the export boom will boost company profits, dividend payments, share prices and wages in the mining sector.
He said higher tax revenue and royalties would flow through to government investment and public sector wages as well.
"It may not have quite as much effect on wages as booms in the past but, given the magnitude of the rise in national income, it would be unusual not to have any impact," Mr Bloxham said.
Economists at Citi said Australia's surpluses were likely to be maintained until the second half of this year on the back China's resilient trade with Asia.
However they said risks to China's growth in the second half of 2017, including sluggish real estate activity, trade frictions with the US and a cooling of commodity prices meant Australia's large trade surpluses were unlikely to last.
"Such likelihood argues against the federal government boosting their budget revenue numbers in future years, should that be the Treasurer's temptation," they said.
Citi's economists argued that the mining boom was also less likely to benefit Australian households than the previous one in 2000-2014, because the current surge would not be accompanied by new investment, construction and jobs.
National Australian Bank markets economist Tapas Strickland said the bumper surplus would add to fourth quarter economic growth, meaning Australia would avoid a technical recession - defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth - after GDP fell 0.5 per cent in the September quarter.
"This contribution and an expected bounce back from the weather-affected third quarter figure suggests a fourth quarter GDP outcome in the order of 1.0 per cent, quarter on quarter, or higher," he said.
The fourth quarter GDP figure is due to be released on March 1.
Mr Strickland said the surplus would help Australia avoid a credit ratings downgrade, after ratings agency Standard and Poor's said in July that a sharp narrowing of current account deficits and external debt due to favourable export performance could it to change its ratings outlook on Australia negative to stable.
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