Regional voters crippled by unemployment will hold the key to the Queensland election as Labor and the opposition gear up for a battle in the state's north.
Seats surrounding the cities of Townsville and Cairns, with unemployment rates of 9.7 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively, will form the deciding votes as the minority Labor government seeks a clear-cut majority and the Liberal National Party asks for a fresh start.
Adding further complications to the upcoming election will be the return of full preferential voting and the rebirth of One Nation.
"Some of the key battlegrounds will be seats in the regional cities in the north where unemployment is high and the government is being criticised for the lack of jobs and the like," ABC electoral analyst Antony Green told AAP.
"Seats around Townsville and Cairns, like Maryborough and Bundaberg, which were slight surprise Labor gains last time, will be very tough to hold, particularly with full preferential voting coming back."
Mr Green said Labor would lose out on the preferences it gained at the 2015 poll, when Queenslanders united to reject the highly unpopular Campbell Newman and his LNP administration and return Labor to minority power.
However, veteran analyst Malcolm Mackerras predicts Labor will win a majority government this time around, with 48 seats notionally tipped in Labor's favour after the electorate redistribution early this year.
Dr Mackerras expects the party will regain Cook and Cairns, seats held by defectors Billy Gordon and Rob Pyne, and take the bellwether Whitsunday electorate from LNP incumbent Jason Costigan.
Labor is confident of winning those seats, and is also hopeful of picking up Mt Ommaney and Mansfield, south of Brisbane, while the LNP looks to Bundaberg, Maryborough and the northern Gold Coast.
The opposition faces a significant challenge with Tim Nicholls as leader, Dr Mackerras added, due to his low profile and senior role in the Newman government.
As treasurer, Mr Nicholls was the architect of the party's asset sales pitch and cuts to the private sector.
"I just have the impression that Nicholls is not a good leader at all; he is not popular," Dr Mackerras said.
"Whereas (Premier) Annastacia Palaszczuk is perceived as doing a reasonable sort of job and therefore I have a feeling that she will win the election in a much diminished form to the way Peter Beattie was able to win his second election."
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