One thing seems clear on what could be a problematic day for Malcolm Turnbull.
While the prime minister faces the defection of a Liberal senator to form his own party, poor polling and a potential backlash by a group of Liberals reportedly wanting to resurrect a free-vote on marriage equality, one issue he won't be tripped up by is a surprise interest rate move by the Reserve Bank.
The central bank holds it first board meeting of the year on Tuesday as MPs and senators return to Canberra for parliament's first sitting of 2017.
The Reserve Bank meeting will also be the first since the shock contraction in economic growth in the September quarter, reported in December.
Economic figures since, such as a record monthly trade surplus and more positive quarterly retail spending numbers, suggest the drop in growth was a one-off and won't be repeated when the next national accounts are reported on March 1.
It will mean a technical recession has been avoided and the central bank need not step in to prop up the economy with a further cut in the cash rate - already at a record low of 1.5 per cent.
Financial markets suggest such stability could be seen throughout the year with continued subdued inflation stalling rate rises, even though the US has set a global trend for higher interest rates.
A new survey also found business expectations for employment are at a more than three-year low, despite hopes for increased sales, profits and capital investment.
"Business expectations ... have taken a step down from the optimism seen at the end of 2016," Dun & Bradstreet economic advisor Stephen Koukoulas said.
The interest rate outlook should be clearer after RBA governor Philip Lowe addresses an economic forum on Thursday night ahead of the bank's quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday.
