Retail, trade disappoint after vibrant GDP

New figures suggest the new financial year got off to a disappointing start after ending the previous one on a high note.

Shoppers are seen on Pitt St Mall

Retail spending has helped a marked rebound in the Australian economy. (AAP)

There are early signs the more vibrant pace of economic growth that ended the financial year failed to carry over to the one we're in now.

New figures show retail spending growth was flat in July and exports declined, two areas that helped lift growth in the June quarter.

Retail data released on Thursday showed spending in July was virtually unchanged from the previous month at $26.1 billion and even weaker than the modest 0.2 per cent increase expected by economists.

Macquarie Research economist Shane Lee blamed high utility prices and weak wages growth for the unexpected result, despite the "green shoots" of solid jobs growth in the past six months.

However, leading indicators suggested the employment outlook would remain positive for at least the next few months.

"So we don't anticipate discretionary consumer spending is about to collapse," Lee said.

At the same time, the monthly trade position shrank to a surplus of $460 million in July from $888 million in June with exports declining two per cent, despite the iron ore price moving higher in the month and coal shipments rising.

The culprit was a drop in gold and fuel exports in the month.

However, Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan is expecting strong export volumes over the September quarter as a whole with net exports - exports minus imports - again making a contribution to growth.

This will be the result of additional capacity in the LNG sector coming on stream and as service exports rise further to meet increasing demand from the Asian region.

Treasurer Scott Morrison was still talking up Wednesday's growth figures, even though the annual rate remained relatively low.

The national accounts showed the economy expanded 0.8 per cent in the June quarter, a marked rebound from the 0.3 per cent posted in the first three months of the year.

However, the annual rate only edged up to 1.8 per cent, well below the economy's potential growth rate closer to three per cent.

Even so, Mr Morrison was pleased to see the stronger growth in business investment, something he's long been waiting on.

"So that is where that encouragement comes from," Mr Morrison told ABC radio.

But opposition finance spokesman Jim Chalmers said the treasurer wanted Australians to believe they were a "beautiful set of numbers".

"It says it all about the treasurer. He is walking around this building, patting himself on the back for numbers which show wages are going backwards," he said.


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Source: AAP



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