Russia's economy ministry has issued a dire forecast of 16 years of negligible growth and global underperformance because of the Kremlin's failure to pursue reforms when oil prices were high.
Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev's announcement came only two weeks after Russia reported a disappointing 1.2 per cent third-quarter growth figure.
That outcome means that the economy will have a tough time expanding beyond two per cent in 2013 - about half the rate of the US.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had hoped to see five per cent growth this year and reshuffled his economic team in the summer when that goal slipped out of reach.
Ulyukayev cautioned that "the average rise in gross domestic product will range between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent until 2025".
He said this will be followed by "a certain drop-off in the last five years" that will see the annual rate through 2030 reach 2.5 per cent.
The economy ministry this spring had expected annual growth in the period to reach more than four per cent.
Ulyukayev also warned that Russia will now have a tough time fulfilling the massive spending promises that Putin made when he assumed his third term in the Kremlin in May 2012.
"The pace of Russia's economic growth will fall behind the global average in the forecast period," Ulyukayev observed.
The dramatic economic downgrade underscores the problem Putin's appointees have had both identifying and resolving Russia's most damaging economic problems.
Moscow's Vedomosti daily summed up the grim mood by lamenting that "Russia is preparing for 10 lean years".
Russia enjoyed a boom during Putin's first two terms as president between 2000 and 2008 thanks to soaring prices for the country's energy and commodity exports.
But analysts blame Russia for then failing to make investments in the non-energy sector needed for it to attain sustainability and become inured to global oil price swingings.
Ulyukayev conceded the same point by stressing that "the factors behind sharp economic growth in the pre-2008 crisis years have been exhausted".
Share
