Michael Matthews will become the third Australian rider to win the Tour de France's green jersey providing he makes it to the finish in Paris.
The Sunweb rider mathematically secured the points category for the leading sprinter during Friday's long and hot 19th stage from Embrun to Salon-de-Provence, at 222km the longest in this year's Tour.
Edvald Boasson Hagen won the stage as Britain's Chris Froome crossed safely in the pack to retain the yellow jersey with two stages to go.
Norwegian Boasson Hagen has been on the wrong side of two photo finishes so far in this Tour but made certain of victory in Salon-de-Provence as he attacked out of the breakaway with three kilometres to go and soloed to the line.
Along with stage runner-up Nikias Arndt, Boasson Hagen was one of only two riders to head right into a roundabout, emerging with a lead he never relinquished.
"This morning we watched a video of the finale and we were instructed to be on the right side," the 30-year-old said.
"It was shorter. Everyone else went on the left, except Nikias Arndt. It was the right moment to go.
"I had studied the course and I knew I had to go right in that last roundabout. Afterwards, I managed to go solo and I was so happy when I crossed the line. I've been so close so many times. It's really nice to finally get this victory for the team and for myself as well."
Matthews did not feature in the day's one intermediate sprint, which was contested by a group of 20 escapees, none of whom are remotely close to him in the points standings.
His cause was helped by the disqualification of Peter Sagan, the green jersey winner for the past five years, after stage 4 and a crash that took German sprinter Marcel Kittel, winner of five stages this year, out of the race on stage 17.
The 26-year-old Matthews, winner of stage 14 in Rodez and the 16th stage in Romans-sur-Isere, had built up a huge 160-point lead over Germany's Andre Greipel by Friday's stage.
As long as he arrives safely in Paris, Matthews will join compatriots Robbie McEwen (2002, 2004 and 2006) and Baden Cooke (2003) in securing the green jersey.
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