Scottish independence: What will 'yes' or 'no' look like?

As polls open in Scotland's referendum of Independence, we take a look at what a 'yes' or 'no' vote means for the future of Scotland.

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To be an independent country or not to be? That is the question for Scotland in the referendum. To see what happens if Scotland votes "yes" proceed to point A and To find out what a "no" vote will mean proceed to B.

A. You voted 'yes' to an independent Scotland - what's next?

It's important to note this is only the first step in a lengthy process towards Scottish independence. 

First Minister and Independence campaigner Alex Salmond wants the transition to independence to be finalised by March 2016.

Some commentators have described the process of separation as being a bit like a divorce, which could be either amicable or very messy.

Here are a few of the issues to be negotiated over the next 18 months:

Membership in the European Union after a "yes" vote

One of the first steps of an independent Scotland will be to apply to join the European Union.

Melbourne Law School’s Professor Gerry Simpson says an application to join the EU may not be straightforward. 

"There's a lot of anxiety amongst certain European States like Spain and France about secessionist movements within their own countries, so breakaway regions so there may be a little bit of reluctance to ease the path of succession,” he says.

Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has previously suggested that he might block Scotland's entry into the EU.

He has told the BBC it is clear under EU treaties and from statements from European leaders that "if a part of a state becomes separate, it becomes a third party in relation to the European Union".

He added that for "separate territories within a member state" to join the EU would take years and depend on the ratification of all 28 member states.

Scotland’s nuclear future after a "yes" vote

Professor Simpson says one of the biggest issue following a “yes” vote is what to do about Britain's nuclear trident submarine base which is based in Scotland, near Glasgow.

"The Scottish nationalists have made it quite clear they want the trident missile moved from Scotland," he says.

"It's not quite clear where it would go, or whether anyone would want it. 

"So I think that could also create future difficulties in future negations between Scotland and residual UK."
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B. You voted 'no' and will remain a part of the United Kingdom.

Scotland has voted to remain part of the United Kingdom but that doesn’t mean everything will stay the same. Here are some of the implications of voting "no":

Devolution of power after a "no" vote

Westminster party leaders have pledged to give "extensive new powers" to the Scottish Parliament if voters reject independence in Thursday's referendum.

Professor Simpson says the pledge has been made in an attempt to woe Scottish voters away from a "yes" vote.

"The Westminster parties seem to have panicked in the last couple of weeks as the polls have got closer," he says. "So as a result the Westminster parties have offered Scotland 'devolution plus' as they call it," he says.

Prime Minister David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Labour Party leader Ed Miliband say the devolved powers would be "delivered by the process and to the timetable agreed" by the UK's three biggest parties in a deal brokered by Scottish-born former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown.

The leaders sought to guarantee greater levels of state funding and to make the Scottish parliament a permanent institution.

Will there be another referendum?

Alex Salmond, who has led the Scottish nationalist movement, has indicated the vote is a "once in a generation" opportunity.

Professor Simpson says after a "no" vote there's unlikely to be another referendum for quite some time.

"They won't push for another referendum," he says. "They won't keep asking for referendums until they get the right answer."

"I think that would be very destabilising for the British state, for Scotland and for Scottish residents and citizens, so I hope the matter will be laid to rest I think for a very lengthy period."
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Source: SBS



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