Scottish 'yes' win would affect Australia

A win for Scottish independence will weaken the British pound and make Australian exports to the UK dearer.

Yes and no signs are displayed.

A win for Scottish independence will weaken the British pound and make exports to the UK dearer. (AAP)

A yes vote for independence in Scotland this week could mean fewer Brits travelling Down Under and a drop in Aussie wine sales.

A surge in the "yes" vote in polls taken ahead of Thursday's referendum is making people take the possibility of Scottish independence much more seriously.

Scotland would retain the Queen as head of state, just like Australia, but there is uncertainty over how smoothly the transfer of government powers from London to Edinburgh will be.

University of NSW Business School professor, Richard Holden expects the uncertainty created by a win for the "yes" vote will spell big changes in the Aussie dollar's value against the British pound.

He said while it's difficult to predict, the Australian dollar could rise 10 to 20 per cent against the pound from its current level of around 55.7 British pence.

"The pound and the Aussie dollar are one of the world's most commonly traded currency pairs, due to our shared heritage," he said.

"The biggest Australian exports to the UK are gold, coal, lead and alcoholic beverages, like wine - those would be the ones most likely to be affected."

A weaker pound would also make trips to Australia for Pommy tourists more expensive.

Professor Holden said changes in currency values have impacted tourism flows of other countries in the past.

"When the yen has been stronger that's been associated with more tourism from Japan," he said.

"With the US and Canada, changes in the exchange rate seem to have an impact on tourism between the two countries."

Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said financial markets' jitters could last for a long time, perhaps years, if Scotland votes for independence.

"Essentially what Scotland will start to do is the negotiation process whereby it becomes and independent nation," he said.

"We're talking about 300-plus years of history being unstitched, that's not something that can happen overnight."

If the yes vote wins on Thursday, Scotland would become independent in 2016 and it will, at least initially, keep the British pound as its currency.

Mr Rennie, who grew up in Scotland, said he fully understands the emotional side of the argument but is worried about the economic strength of an independent Scotland.

"The idea of creating a new independent nation that is reliant on services and dwindling oil and energy, as well as an enormous financial system embedded in it, that to me is an accident waiting to happen," he said.

"So what you'd end up with is an economy with unknown fundamentals, and a very large financial system that will at least in part will want to move to England."


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