Shares to rise despite global turmoil

Investors are taking extreme caution due to escalating global conflict, but one expert expects the local market to continue its recent rise.

Electronic ASX board.

Investors are taking extreme caution due to escalating global conflict. (AAP)

The share market is tipped to continue to deliver growing returns in the year ahead, despite the potential fallout from the Malaysia Airlines disaster.

The fundamentals of the local market remain healthy, AMP Capital head of investment strategy Shane Oliver said, as the market hovers at a six year high.

Gains may be smaller than in recent years, but with shares still at good value, economic conditions on the improve and interest rates on hold for some time, growth remains likely, he said.

"It seems everyone is talking about share market corrections and crashes," Dr Oliver said.

"The amount of cash sitting in the superannuation system is still double average levels seen prior to the GFC, and Australians continue to prefer bank deposits and paying down debt to shares and superannuation.

"There is still a lot of money that can come into equity markets as confidence improves."

But he warns there are risks to share market's rise, including the political consequences of global conflicts.

Investors around the world have pulled back on trading since flight MH17 was shot down over Ukraine, waiting to see what economic pressures are placed on Russia as world leaders seek answers and a end to conflict in the region.

Combat in the Gaza Strip has also muted investor sentiment.

"This trading pattern is unlikely to slow over the coming weeks as the push-pull factors from the political negotiations add uncertainly to trading and the Russian ruble," IG market strategist Evan Lucas said.

"Bonds and equities are unlikely to find support in the interim and are likely to contract even further."

Dr Oliver said other risks to the local market are the Australian economy's shift away from the mining investment boom, a potential property slowdown in China, and a possible inflation and interest rate scare in the United States.

"However ... still reasonable share valuations, gradually improving economic conditions, easy monetary conditions and a lack of excessive optimism suggest further decent investment returns ahead," he said.


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