Signs of improving growth ahead of budget

New figures shows exporters and home building are likely to provide a lift to economic growth in coming months.

As Treasury nails down its economic forecasts for next Tuesday's federal budget, new figures suggest the economy got off to a more spritely start to the year after a disappointing finish to 2017.

Exports are booming again, reigniting growing monthly trade surpluses and lifting Australia's economic profile.

The trade surplus grew for the third month in a row to stand at $1.5 billion in March, after being $1.3 billion in February and $1.2 billion in January.

In contrast, a $1.6 billion deficit was posted in December following tiny surpluses of just over a $100 million in October and November.

In March exports were a record $34.8 billion, a 1.4 per cent increase on the previous month.

Economists expect exports will add 0.6 percentage points to growth when the March quarter national accounts are released on June 6.

This is a marked turnaround from the 0.4 percentage point detraction from growth during the December quarter.

At the same time, building approvals put in another solid month in March, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed, notwithstanding continued volatility in high-density projects like apartments.

"The Reserve Bank is hoping for economic growth near three per cent in both 2018 and 2019 and today's data supports this view," Commonwealth Securities chief economist Craig James said.

The central bank will hand down its quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday with updated economic forecasts.

Treasurer Scott Morrison hands down his third federal budget on Tuesday, which will also contain Treasury's latest forecasts.

TD Securities chief strategist for the Asia Pacific, Annette Beacher, at this stage is forecasting March quarter economic growth at 0.8 per cent, double the rate recorded in the December quarter.

This would lift the annual rate to around 2.7 per cent after a disappointing 2.4 per cent rate previously.

Building approvals rose 2.6 per cent in March, to be 14.5 per cent high than a year earlier.

Housing Industry Association senior economist Shane Garrett said detached house approvals are at their highest since April 2015.

"The upshot of today's figures is that new home building activity will remain elevated over the near term," he said.


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Source: AAP



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