Below-the-line votes for popular Tasmanian Labor senator Lisa Singh, shunned by her own party in preselection, could cost the Greens' Nick McKim his spot in the upper house, a polling analyst says.
Listed sixth on Labor's ticket, in a position widely considered unwinnable, Senator Singh has attracted some 3000 first-preference votes to date which is by far the most of any individual Tasmanian candidate according to the Australian Electoral Commission's latest tally.
But she and Liberal senator Richard Colbeck, relegated to fifth on his party's ticket, will have to wait until probably Friday to get a better idea of their future, analyst Kevin Bonham said.
"On the figures that are counted so far Lisa Singh is in quite a good position and Richard Colbeck's position is less clear - it's rather borderline," Dr Bonham told ABC Radio on Monday.
"It is possible that both of them will win."
If that scenario rings true it will mean an extra senate spot for both major parties that otherwise looked unlikely, with both Labor and Liberal having so far secured four quotas each.
But it would also mean a likely loss for the Greens who have secured only one of two existing Senate spots - that of Peter Whish-Wilson.
Senator McKim, who in August filled a vacancy left by departing party leader Christine Milne, looks in doubt with the Greens yet to reach a second quota.
It would be a bitter outcome for the senator who relinquished his position as MP and leader of the Tasmanian Greens for the Canberra job.
"It is quite obvious that in the Hobart area quite a lot of people who normally vote Green voted `one' for Lisa Singh and as a result Nick McKim is in quite a dicey position," Dr Bonham said.
"It is not clear at this stage that Nick McKim will be re-elected."
Outspoken senator Jacqui Lambie has confirmed her return to the upper house while Pauline Hanson's One Nation party has also polled well above the line in the Tasmanian ballot.
