Soft profits may not drag down Q4 GDP

Company profits sank 2.8 per cent in the December quarter, the worst result since the second quarter of 2014.

An information board illustrates movements in share prices

Company gross operating profits fell 2.8 per cent in the December quarter, missing expectations. (AAP)

Weaker company profits may not spell doom for Wednesday's December quarter economic growth figures.

Company gross operating profits sank 2.8 per cent in the December quarter, the largest decline in about 18 months.

They were down 2.3 per cent in the 12 months to December.

But Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan says this doesn't necessarily point to a disastrous result for the gross domestic product growth (GDP) data.

The company results are better described as mixed, with adjusted profits more resilient than anticipated, he said.

"On an adjusted basis - to be more consistent with the national accounts measure - company profits were broadly flat (at) 0.3 per cent, surprising to the upside," he said.

Westpac predicts growth to slow to 0.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2015, rounding annual growth to 2.6 per cent.

That's below the nation's long-term trend rate of 3.2 per cent.

But Mr Hanlan said Westpac's GDP forecasts will be finalised following Tuesday's net exports and public demand data.

Mining profits slumped six per cent on weaker commodity prices, and non-mining profits were also down a little in the period.

The estimate of income from sales by manufacturers fell two per cent, in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures, and for wholesalers it was up 1.6 per cent in the December quarter, compared with the previous three months.

Wages and salaries edged up 0.5 per cent in the quarter, and Mr Hanlan said while employment was strong, wages per employee are weakening.

Estimated business inventories, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, were trimmed by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said the inventories result implies a larger drag on growth than had first been anticipated.

"As such, we are flagging downside risk to our forecast for Wednesday's fourth quarter GDP forecast of 0.6 per cent," he said.


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Source: AAP



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