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Solid jobs growth tipped for May

Employment growth is expected to have picked up in May, with job ad numbers and business surveys pointing to short term strength in the labour market.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the official job figures for August. (AAP)

The pulse of jobs growth is tipped to have picked up slightly, meaning one less headache for the Reserve Bank.

The number of Australians with a job is expected to have risen by 17,000 in May, after increasing by 10,800 in April.

The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up to 5.8 per cent in May, from April's 5.7 per cent, according to an AAP survey of 11 economists.

ANZ senior economist Jo Masters says job ads hit a four year high in May, and employer demand for staff seems to be gaining momentum.

"The business surveys have also continued to suggest quite strong employment intentions, profitability and solid conditions generally," she said.

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ANZ has an August RBA rate cut pencilled in, but given the central bank's elusive commentary after leaving rates on hold at a record low of 1.75 per cent in June, Ms Masters warns the bar is fairly high for further easing.

"It didn't have any clear forward guidance," she said.

The RBA will continue to watch growth and inflation closely, but the labour market doesn't have the same focus it had nine months ago, Ms Masters said.

"The unemployment rate seems to have stabilised around 5.75 per cent. And you'll get two more readings before the August meeting, as well as the second quarter consumer price index," she said.

ANZ expects employment growth to stay at reasonable levels in 2016, but warns it won't reach the lofty heights seen in late 2015.

"That slowdown makes it difficult for the unemployment rate to improve substantially from here, but there'll be enough employment growth to hold it around current levels," Ms Masters said.

The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or actively looking for work, is expected to have risen to 64.9 per cent in May, from 64.8 per cent in April.

SOLID EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN MAY

* Unemployment rate forecast to rise to 5.8pct in May

* The number of people with jobs tipped to rise by 17,000

* Participation rate forecast to rise to 64.9pct

(Source: AAP survey of 11 economists)


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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