Australia's youngest-ever Senator, Sarah Hanson-Young, could be a one-term wonder, with a popular independent, rising conservative support and a political groundswell against preferencing the Greens creating a storm that will be hard for her to weather.
On a chilly Adelaide evening, the Greens are launching their volunteer campaign, signing up supporters to hand out how-to-vote cards at polling booths on election day.
On the mezzanine of an ageing café in Adelaide's East End hipster heartland, a gold tinsel Christmas tree sits unadorned behind Senator Sarah Hanson-Young as she explains what it will take for her to hold her senate spot.
"Got to get people out on polling booths on polling day. It makes such a difference. We've got to hold our primary vote, and we've got to make sure we increase that vote by about 2 per cent. That is totally doable."
But political commentator Clem Macintyre suggests that would be an early Christmas miracle.
"But as I say, with Xenophon in the running that is difficult."
Professor Macintyre's referring to maverick independent Nick Xenophon, who's established himself as an alternative to the major parties and is likely to hold his spot, not just costing the Greens primary votes, but preferences too.
"I think the results will probably, on the basis of current polling, shift slightly and there's every chance the Greens' Sarah Hanson-Young will lose her seat and that last seat in the Senate will be won by the Coalition, which would mean three from the Coalition, two Labor and one independent. But that is very much dependent upon fine balances of votes on the night and on the flow of preferences. So while I think my gut feeling at the moment is it'll be very difficult for Sarah Hanson-Young to hold her seat, I wouldn't discount it with the right primary vote and a flow of preferences that comes from the minor parties, the Greens may hold on."
To be assured of election, senate candidates need 14 per cent of primary votes.
Last time Sarah Hanson-Young fell short of that quota but got in on second preferences, directed to her ahead of the Liberals by Labor and Nick Xenophon.
This time those preferences have become harder to find.
In a bright orange Kombi Van emblazoned with slogans and pictures, Nick Xenophon arrives at the Marino community Hall in Adelaide's southwest.
Amidst lamingtons and cups of tea in a room redolent of the 1950s, Senator Xenophon is finding out what matters to his supporters.
"They were invited to spend a day with people wearing the burqa to see what it was like on the other side, and had it all explained to them - underneath they are all wearing western clothes! Yes they are."
But when it comes to politics, the message is not one the Greens are hoping for.
"I must say I was one that was going to ring up and tell you I'm not going to help you if you give preferences to that other lady. I'm sorry, I had to get that off my chest!" Xenophon: "Look the feedback I've had loud and clear, that the sensible thing to do would be, the safest course would be to equally preference the Coalition on one side and Labor on the other, that way it's split down the middle, because most people that vote for me tend to vote for the major parties, then it trickles down to the minors in a fairly logically consistent way." Question: "Well that's worked for you before Nick didn't it?" Xenophon: "No, I used to put the minors above the majors but this time round there's seems to be a really strong reaction."
Outside, Senator Xenophon says he could not discount the views of his supporters in determining where his preferences should go.oad a
"These are the people that I rely on, these are the people that help me on the day, they're the footsoldiers of the campaign. Is it that they'd rather the preferences go to the major parties, to the Coalition on one side and the Australian Labor Party on the other side equally? And that seems to be the very strong feedback I'm getting."
Sarah Hanson-Young believes the major parties hold little in common with Mr Xenophon's policy passions, such as opposition to poker machines and protecting Australian farms from foreign takeover - issues she believes the Greens would better help him defend.
She says rather than listening to his own "footsoldiers" Mr Xenophon should have considered the interests of the whole nation when allocating his preferences.
"The risk here is that if I don't get elected, Tony Abbott gets control, so it's up to Nick Xenophon and others to weigh up whether that risk is really worth it. Now I think, as many Australians do, Tony Abbott having total control of parliament would be a disaster for this country."
But Mr Xenophon disputes any suggestion that his preferences could help the Coalition gain complete control of the Senate.
"That's arithmetically impossible - I don't want one major party or the other to have unfettered power. You have a situation where the Coalition might pick up one or two seats in the senate but they are still five seats short of a majority - that's five seats, I can't see how they're going to get that."
The Liberals agree with Nick Xenophon's assessment.
Senate frontbencher Simon Birmingham is assured of keeping his spot, as is his controversial colleague, Cory Bernardi, and the prospect of a third seat in South Australia looms increasingly large.
"Our intention and expectation is that the Liberal party preferences probably won't be distributed. We would expect to be in the count to win that sixth spot for our number 3 candidate Cathie Webb - our hope is we will get sufficient number 1 votes and our aim is to win those off of the Labor party."
The ALP has seen that danger and preferenced Sarah Hanson-Young ahead of Nick Xenophon, in a move that keeps Senator Hanson-Young's prospects alive and diminishes the chances of Senator Xenophon getting sufficient votes to have his running mate elected.
Professor Clem Macintyre says Labor's preferences could make or break Senator Hanson-Young's aspirations.
"Sarah Hanson-Young will hope their vote is sufficiently strong so that after two Labor Ssnators are elected there is a little bit of excess Labor vote that will transfer to her and keep her in the running and that she will eventually benefit from the flow of some other party preferences."
Meanwhile Mr Xenophon says some of the preference deals are wildly contradictory, such as the ALP putting the right-leaning Family First ahead of him.
It's a tactic he thinks is aimed at stopping his running mate, retail analyst Stirling Griff from joining him on the senate benches and potentially giving South Australians the balance of power in the Senate.
Wheeling and dealing aside, Mr Xenophon says his approach is simple, and is one the Greens would do well to follow.
"I've had to get a full quota in my own right. I can't rely on preferences and that's a good rule of thumb to go by."
Former Greens Leader Bob Brown has been spending plenty of time in Adelaide, negotiating Senator Hanson Young's preference deals.
He says the marshalling of political forces against them is a sign of the how influential the Greens have become.
"It shows how strong the Greens are, that we've got Labor and Liberal ganging up on progressive voters right across the country and trying to stem the growth of the Greens, and the Greens at the moment are seeing our polling going up again. No wonder after Labor and Liberals, Rudd's and Abbott's, disgraceful treatment of refugees, and Sarah Hanson-Young has been at the forefront of putting forward the humane alternative, which is changing votes."
