Spain's Catalonia crisis: What's next?

Spain is facing its worst political crisis in 40 years, as the central government dissolves the restive Catalan government and calls a snap election.

Spain has sacked Catalonia's regional government, dissolved the Catalan parliament and called a snap election in the region, in a bid to draw a line under the country's worst political crisis in 40 years.

Below are several scenarios of what could happen in the next few days.

DIRECT RULE

On Friday, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy sacked Catalonia's government including regional president Carles Puigdemont and his deputy Oriol Junqueras and assumed direct control over the region.

Central government ministries will assume directly the powers of the Catalan administration until a regional election takes place on December 21.

ELECTIONS

It is not clear whether a snap regional election will resolve the crisis.

An opinion poll published by the El Periodico newspaper on Sunday showed a snap election would probably have results similar to the last ballot in 2015, when a coalition of pro-independence parties formed a minority government.

Other opinion polls have shown Catalonia is almost evenly split between pro- and anti-independence supporters.

CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE

Catalonia's main secessionist groups have called for widespread civil disobedience. They also instructed civil servants not to obey orders from Madrid and respond with peaceful resistance.

USE OF FORCE

Spain's government said it was not planning to make any arrests, but it is unclear how it will proceed if the current regional administration staff refuse to leave their offices.

A growing number of analysts fear this could lead to a physical confrontation if national police, who used heavy-handed tactics to thwart an October 1 vote on independence, seek to intervene.

POLICE

One of the main problems over the implementation of direct rule will relate to Catalonia's own police forces, the Mossos d'Esquadra.

Rajoy said the Mossos chief would be fired.

But a group of Mossos favouring independence has already said they would not follow instructions from the central government.

Several officers told Reuters they believed the 17,000-strong force was split between those who want independence and those who oppose it.

The Mossos, whose chief is under investigation on suspicion of sedition, will have to act on direct orders from their new bosses. If deemed necessary, Mossos officers may be replaced by national police.

FINANCES

The Economy Ministry has already increased its control over regional finances, to block the use of state funds to organise the secession bid, and started paying directly for essential services.

Under the new proposal, Madrid will take full financial control.

PUBLIC MEDIA

The Spanish government had initially said it would control widely watched Catalan public television TV3, but it eventually dropped that plan.


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Source: AAP



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