Tame inflation to push RBA over the line

More sluggish local consumer prices could set the scene for an August rate cut to a fresh record low of 1.50 per cent.

Benign price pressures are tipped to push the Reserve Bank to slash the cash rate to a new record low of 1.5 per cent next month.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to have risen 0.5 per cent in the June quarter for an annual rate of 1.1 per cent, according to an AAP survey of 10 economists.

Underlying inflation, which strips out the effects of volatile price movements, is forecast to have been at 0.4 per cent in the quarter and 1.4 per cent over the year.

Both annual figures sit below the central bank's two to three per cent target band.

The market is currently pricing around a 65 per cent chance of August easing, and the majority of economists are tipping a cut pending next week's key inflation figures.

The data will be released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Tuesday's dovish RBA July meeting minutes hinted the update on consumer prices could tip the balance, and flagged a gloomy outlook.

"Inflation was still expected to remain quite low for some time given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world," the RBA said.

It follows the extremely weak first quarter data and consequent downgrade to the RBA's inflation forecasts.

"We expect the data to confirm that prices pressures remain muted across a wide range of items," ANZ senior economist Jo Masters said.

"International developments, financial market stability and the Australian dollar will also be key discussion points at the August policy meeting."

But NAB economist Tapas Strickland is going against the tide, expecting core inflation to be high enough to keep the RBA on hold.

"(Monetary) support currently is not clearly needed with business conditions at pre-GFC levels, the unemployment rate at 5.8 per cent, and non-mining gross domestic product growing at an above trend rate," he said.

Mr Strickland says the RBA should have confidence that inflation will return to its target once one-off shocks, including a lower oil price and heightened retail competition dissipate.

Underlying inflation is at its lowest level in more than two decades, despite recent above-trend growth.


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Source: AAP


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