A "win" on schools funding may end up doing Malcolm Turnbull more harm than good.
The Turnbull government on Thursday was poised to pass its so-called Gonski 2.0 package with the support of 10 crossbenchers.
However, it's come at a cost.
The Greens, who negotiated professionally and in good faith with the government for months, found themselves suddenly sidelined when a deal with One Nation, the Nick Xenophon Team, Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie and Lucy Gichuhi became apparent.
Greens leader Richard Di Natale expressed his disappointment the government "stitched up" a deal at the last minute, arguing the final package fell well short of David Gonski's aim of getting rid of Labor's 27 special deals with various schools sectors and states.
The prime minister could now find himself up the creek if he wants the Greens to support future deals on legislation - and there's a lot left to be done.
Of concern to the Liberal party's conservative base, Turnbull now has to find $1.1 billion over the next four years to cover the cost of his promises to the crossbenchers.
This comes at a time when the government's economic forecasts are already under question, especially in regard to wages growth and tax revenue, and the prospects of a return to surplus any time soon are low.
Australian Conservatives senator Cory Bernardi and Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm, who opposed the package, say throwing more money at schools is madness.
"It's like the definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over expecting the same result," says Leyonhjelm.
One aspect of the negotiated package which could come back to bite Turnbull is an independent body to be known as the National School Resourcing Board.
Under the crossbench deal, one of the first jobs for the board will be, according to Xenophon, "reviewing school funding methodology and to ensure accountability on the allocation of funding".
There will also be a review of the socio-economic standard calculations, which Xenophon says will ensure the new funding method "best reflects parents' capacity to pay".
The National Catholic Education Commission says the package as it stands will cut $3.1 billion to Catholic schools over the next decade, based on figures from the independent Parliamentary Budget Office.
With parents (that is, voters in marginal seats) of children at independent and church-run schools already facing rises in fees because of Gonski 2.0, the review result could in fact see parents paying even higher fees.
The government sought to defuse this debate - championed by retiring Liberal senator Chris Back - by promising $50 million for a 12-month transition fund.
The fund is likely to expire just as the coalition is seeking to go to the polls in 2018 or 2019.
Labor, which continues to insist the deal is $22 billion worse than it promised in government, will come well-armed for a state-by-state battle.
The Liberal-held states of Tasmania and NSW will be key battlegrounds.
As late as this week, NSW was still pushing for its previous schools funding deal with the previous federal Labor government to be honoured - but this is now defunct, at a cost .
Labor's Tanya Plibersek says Tasmania's public schools will be $68 million worse off over two years, with that state's overall funding package running second only to the Northern Territory in terms of the worst deals.
Lambie, who hails from Tasmania, could not tell reporters when questioned on Wednesday how much extra money had been promised.
Ahead of the next election federal Labor will need to craft a schools policy which is coherent and ambitious, and taps into the needs and aspirations of parents.
Key to this will be the support of the states and territories, six out of eight of which are held by Labor governments, as well as the teacher unions and bodies which oversee the private school systems.
Turnbull is banking on voters marking down Labor as "negative" about what is clearly historic reform to education funding, as well as "lying" about the figures.
On the positive side, according to Education Minister Simon Birmingham: "I think they (voters) will see the benefits of growing funding, distributed fairly ... right across the country that benefits all systems and sectors."
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