He has survived political challenges for decades but on Monday Tony Abbott must ask a question of the Liberal Party room that he would not have thought possible in his first term as Prime Minister. He will ask Party members not to remove him as leader. But no matter the outcome, this is a shocking, messy, divisive and destructive path for the Liberal Party. The bitter internal disagreements have now been exposed to all.
This is a Prime Minister who, in Opposition, destroyed the Labor Government by exposing their hypocrisy over policy and leadership. Prime Ministers Rudd, then Gillard, and then Rudd again, had no answer to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s relentless attacks. Now he is in the same boat.
The reason is policy failure on a range of levels.
There have been broken promises and the disaster of last year’s budget that not only shocked voters but wasn’t effectively ‘sold’ to the electorate by Prime Minister Abbott or Treasurer Joe Hockey.
Add to the mix the autocratic rule from his office via his personal staff and you have a genuine meltdown on the backbench.
But it wasn’t just the backbench; senior Liberals and senior Ministers were also worried and unsuccessfully tried to influence policy and tactics.
Throughout last year many senior colleagues tried to convince Abbott that he must remove Hockey from the Treasury. Abbott refused. Many also asked and advised him to replace Peta Credlin as Chief of Staff. He refused that also.
It might have been alright had the polls not gone into free fall. But without public support any leader is vulnerable in today’s harsh and fast moving political climate.
In an interview with ABC television on Sunday evening, Mr Abbott said it was important that MPs stuck by him.
"The last thing we want is to see another meltdown in Government."
“The last thing we want is to see another meltdown in Government," he said. "We had meltdowns under the former Government. It was frankly a bit embarrassing. It wasn't good for our country and I think it's very important that we avoid that with this Government.
"That said, obviously it’s a pretty chastening experience to have a spill motion moved on you after just 16 months in government – a very chastening experience – and I am determined that my Government, if it continues after tomorrow, will learn from this experience, will be different and better this year than we were in every respect last year."
The Prime Minister has been working the phones for every last vote.
In rounding up support, Abbott has confirmed that the country’s largest equipment purchase - a new submarine project - will be put out to open tender. This has been a vexed subject, with MPs and the state government in South Australia lobbying for the project to be built there while Abbott has made no secret of his favouritism for a Japanese submarine. The multi-billion dollar defence sector is also impacted by the uncertainty.
Now, Abbott has agreed to a request from South Australian Senator Sean Edwards that he give a guarantee of an open tender - a guarantee that the defence sector has been seeking for nearly 12 months.
“What we have always intended to have is a competitive evaluation process, that's what we've always intended to have”, Abbott said when asked about this sudden announcement.
“We are still a long way from doing this. I mean, the decision on this needs to be made by the end of the year I would say at the latest, but nevertheless it is something which is still evolving as you'd expect."
Abbott confirmed that when the Party room meets members will be able to vote in secret for the spill motion.
As for Ministerial solidarity, he believes that he has the support of his Ministers.
“I would expect that if a Minister was incapable of supporting the Government, the Minister in question would have spoken to me and none of them have but nevertheless this is an opportunity for people to do what they genuinely believe is right for the country and for the Government.”
No matter the outcome. Monday will not be a good day for the Government or the Liberal Party.
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