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Trade to be a drag on economic growth

The current account deficit widened by $3 billion in the December quarter, as imports increased and exports were steady.

A container ship is docked at the Port of Brisbane.
The current account deficit grew by $3 billion in the December quarter after a rise in imports. (AAP)

Australia's current account deficit has widened because of increased imports and flat exports, which is likely to have weighed on December quarter economic growth.

The current account deficit widened to $14.02 billion in the three months to December, from the September quarter's $11.01 billion, seasonally adjusted.

It is the largest deficit since the September quarter of 2016, which was $14.2 billion.

A steady volume of goods exports and an increase in imports are expected to detract 0.5 percentage points from economic growth in the December quarter.

Commonwealth Bank senior economist Gareth Aird said he expects the national accounts to be released on Wednesday to be "a lukewarm set of numbers".

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He has forecast economic growth of 0.4 per cent in the three months to December, for an annual rate of 2.2 per cent, down from 2.8 per cent in the preceding quarter.

Mr Aird said the major drags on growth will be a fall in business investment in the mining sector, and weaker net exports.

But he said the economic growth numbers should not be too far below the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast of 2.5 per cent.

"Tomorrow's data should not shift the needle for the near term outlook for monetary policy," Mr Aird said.

Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan said the current account deficit was largely as expected, and is optimistic that Australia's trade performance will improve.

"Exports are expected to perform better in 2018 as additional capacity in the gas sector comes on stream," he said.

Mr Hanlan said Westpac has lowered its forecast for December quarter economic growth by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4 per cent.


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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