Treasurer focused on economy not polls

Treasurer Scott Morrison has no intention of being diverted from his economic action plan despite a slump in voter support for the coalition.

Treasurer Scott Morrison insists the government is more concerned about growing the economy than trying to interpret the latest opinion poll.

The first Newspoll of the year showed voter support for the coalition slumping to a two-year low, trailing Labor 46-54 per cent.

Mr Morrison concedes the government has had to make some difficult decisions aimed at getting the budget back to balance.

But heading into the first parliamentary sittings of 2017, he has assured voters the government is focused on the affordability of housing, rents, energy and child care.

It also wants to give 100,000 small businesses, employing 2.2 million people, a tax cut this year as part of a 10-year business tax plan.

"We will be pursuing that change, along with the rest of the enterprise tax plan through this sitting of the parliament to ensure that those Australians get the best opportunity for job security, more hours and better wages," the treasurer told reporters in Canberra on Monday.

New figures suggest Australians need something of a pick-me-up.

Retail spending unexpectedly weakened by 0.1 per cent in December.

The decline coincided with a drop in consumer confidence late last year after a shock contraction in the economy.

However, retail turnover over the whole of the December quarter was more upbeat, rising 0.9 per cent after a flat result in the previous three months.

This and last week's record monthly international trade surplus, suggest the September quarter drop in growth was a one-off and won't be repeated when the next national accounts are reported on March 1 - avoiding a technical recession.

There was also positive news for people seeking work, with job advertisements jumping four per cent in January, according to ANZ figures, more than reversing the 2.2 per cent fall in December.

Timo Henckel, a lecturer at the Australian National University's Research School of Economics, believes domestically there is little reason for the Reserve Bank to change the cash rate when it holds its first board meeting of the year on Tuesday.

But internationally the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's US presidency was a bigger concern.

"On the one hand, Trump's promise to drastically increase infrastructure and defence spending, coupled with tax cuts, will exert upward pressure on the US, and hence, world interest rates," he said.

"On the other hand, Trump's protectionist and nationalist policies will dampen international trade and generate political uncertainty."

Dr Henckel chairs the ANU's so-called "RBA shadow board" made up of academics, economists and former central bank board members.

The shadow board attached a 70 per cent probability of the central bank holding the cash rate at a record-low 1.5 per cent this month.

In the longer term, the probability for a needed rate hike in six months was 67 per cent, down from 71 per cent in December.


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Source: AAP



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