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Unemployment to fall but not too far

Official jobs figures on Thursday are tipped to show the number of people with jobs rose by 10,000 in October, and the jobless rate fallin to 6.1 per cent.

It may be a while before the official employment data will be fully trusted but other indicators show that things are looking a bit better for job seekers.

Official labour force figures, to be released on Thursday, are tipped to show the number of people with jobs rose by 10,000 in October. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 6.1 per cent in the month, according to an AAP survey of 11 economists, conducted last week.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced details of how it has changed the way it calculates its seasonally-adjusted employment data after admitting there have been problems.

The ABS also foreshadowed revisions to employment data of recent months.

The September unemployment rate, last reported as 6.1 per cent, will now be 6.2 per cent.

The number of people with jobs, last reported as having fallen by 29,700, will now be down 23,700.

National Australia Bank head of research Peter Jolly said he'll still treat the ABS labour force data with caution.

"The shame of all this is that the seasonally-adjusted results for one of the key pieces of data on the Australian economy can't be relied on any longer," he said.

"At worst, it may take three years before the new seasonal pattern is confirmed and we can trust these numbers again."

Mr Jolly said other labour market indicators, such as the ANZ job advertisements survey and the NAB business survey, show that it will be a while until the unemployment rate falls in any meaningful way.

"NAB's forecast sees the unemployment rate peaking around 6.25 to 6.5 per cent over the next six to 12 months," he said.

The ANZ job advertisement survey for October showed a 0.2 per cent rise in employment ads in October, and up 7.5 per cent in the year to October.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said the increased demand for labour should feed in to better employment growth, thanks to improved investment in the non-mining sectors of the economy.

"The transition to non-mining drivers of growth appears to be occurring, if only gradually."

Mr Hogan said that while several economic indicators suggested the labour market had improved, it was hard to determine its true condition because of technical problems with the ABS jobs data.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said it was fortunate there wasn't much of a change in Tuesday's corrected figures.

"This shouldn't really be a major shock and is unlikely to have any implications for interest rates," he said.

The participation rate - those that have a job, are looking for work or are ready to start work - is forecast to stay steady at 64.5 per cent in October.


3 min read

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