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'Unpredictable' cyclone season looms

Two cyclones are brewing off the Australian coast and an unpredictable tropical low is prompting fears of a cyclone-heavy season ahead.

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Source: AAP


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Two cyclones are brewing off the Australian coast and an unpredictable tropical low is prompting fears of a cyclone-heavy season ahead.

Senior meteorologist for the Weather Channel, Tom Saunders, said a cyclone over the Coral Sea was unlikely to cause any major problems, but that the tropical low forming off the Northern Territory coast, 250km from Darwin, was unpredictable.

According to Saunders the tropical low does not fit any weather models and is a case of simply waiting to see if it becomes more aggressive and in which direction it will travel.

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He said it would move in a northerly direction over the few days but after that "where it heads and how intense it becomes is unpredictable".

"None of the models, which help us forecast the movement and intensity of weather systems, agree where it's going to be or what intensity," Saunders told AAP.

"The one thing the models do agree on is it is going to intensify over the next few days.

"There is a chance it will form a cyclone ... and if it does, we don't know where it's going to move."

Mr Saunders said up to 16 cyclones were expected this summer.

He said the one forming over the Coral Sea would be the second in recent weeks and would track south between Australia and New Caledonia.

"There's already been one in the Indian Ocean so this one will be the second, and a third tropical low (off the Northern Territory coast) may be number three."

The northern part of Australia typically experiences cyclones each season, which lasts until April.

On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.


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