The modern-day rivalry between the US and China has a "whiff" of the lead up to the First World War and Australia can't afford to sit on its hands in denial.
That's the blunt doomsday message of strategic expert Hugh White.
"The pattern of rivalry we've seen over the last few months or weeks is precisely what from a study of history you would expect to see in the lead-up to a major power conflict," the Australian National University professor told the National Press Club on Tuesday.
"There is more than a whiff of 1914 about this situation."
He argued that both sides believe the other one will back down.
The golden era of China accepting the US as the primary power in Asia is over but war is not inevitable, Prof White said.
He said Australia should dump the "diplomatic ambiguity" and take on an activist middle power role which included rallying a coalition of non-great powers in Asia.
On the other hand, former Labor foreign minister Gareth Evans is much more optimistic "cooler heads will prevail".
This is because both countries are "joined at the wallet" in so many ways and Americans are losing their "taste for military adventurism".
He believes the US will have to learn to give some ground to accommodate growing Chinese power and influence and Washington will have to be more careful about asserting itself.
Australia needed to be more vocal in helping the US to see China as a more equal player, he said.
"We're not a paper kitten, militarily. It is the case that in both the United States and China, our voice as a very strong US ally gives us reason in both countries to be taken seriously and heard," Prof Evans said.
The time is not right to up the ante on the South China Sea, but Prof Evans said Australia could push back with solo freedom of navigation exercises in the event of further Chinese militarisation of artificial islands.
Prof White argued there were risks sending an Australian ship to sail within 12 miles of the reclaimed islands.
It would either be seen as a symbolic gesture that wouldn't change anything or would provoke the Chinese to push back harder.
On Australia's recent rejection of two Chinese bids for the NSW electricity grid, the pair urged the federal government to come up with some clear ground rules on infrastructure investment.
"One would have to be living on another planet to believe that you can avoid cyber espionage by having only angels on your share register," Prof Evans said.
Both experts agreed China would be more afraid of a Donald Trump presidency because he would be less predictable than Hillary Clinton.
"When you've got someone who combines complete ignorance about everything with a visible lack of judgement about anything, it's a very serious concern," Prof Evans said.
