WA Senate poll sends political ripples

West Australian voters may be going back to the polls to elect senators, with wide implications for the Abbott government.

A fresh Senate poll in Western Australia will be the country's biggest ever by-election.

At no time in Australia's political history has a Senate election been declared void and a fresh one held, but that is the likely outcome following the High Court case over missing ballot papers.

The Liberals will be aiming to take three out of six seats, with conservative minor parties winning the remainder.

This would set Prime Minister Tony Abbott's government up to overcome the Labor-Green roadblock and pass the carbon and mining tax repeal bills as well as industrial relations changes.

However, the more likely result based on current trends would be three Liberals, at least one Labor and possibly two, and the Greens' Scott Ludlam holding his seat.

By-elections tend to favour opposition parties, with an average swing of five per cent.

Opinion polls have shown Labor narrowing the two-party preferred gap since the September 2013 election, and the key issue of industry job-shedding is hurting the coalition.

The chance of micro-parties such as the Australian Sports Party being well-organised and funded for a fresh election would be slim.

The Palmer United Party may be in with a shot if billionaire founder and MP Clive Palmer is prepared to invest heavily in the campaign.

Having an election in train will have implications for government decision-making.

One of the first promises to be dropped could be publicly releasing the national commission of audit report before the May budget.

Having a debate about deep spending cuts and privatisation will not do the Liberals any favours during an election campaign, unless it can be spun to attack Labor's profligate spending and debt raising.

WA's Barnett government could find itself in a better bargaining position with the commonwealth to fast-track infrastructure spending.

It will also stretch political party resources, running in tandem with March state elections in Tasmania and South Australia.

While the electoral commission has apologised for losing the ballot papers, Palmer says commissioner Ed Killesteyn should resign in order for the public to have faith in the running of the new election.

Palmer appears to be alone in his demand for the scalp of the commissioner, who was reappointed for another five years in January.

But there is no doubt the election process will be scrutinised like no other.


3 min read

Published

Source: AAP


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