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Wage data unlikely to give much cheer

Key wages figures this week are unlikely to give much cheer with economists predicting annual growth staying at 1.9 per cent, its lowest in at least 20 years.

Wages figures due for release this week will likely confirm why Australians are so glum.

The wage price index - the Reserve Bank and Treasury's preferred measure of wage growth - is due on Wednesday and expected by economists to have risen by 0.5 per cent in the June quarter.

That would leave the annual rate at 1.9 per cent, its lowest in at least 20 years and only just keeping pace with the rate of inflation.

Average weekly earning figures on Thursday will give a breakdown of wages in dollar terms.

Last week, consumer confidence data showed pessimists outnumbered optimists for a ninth consecutive month, something that has not occurred since the start of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

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It was blamed on subdued wage growth, high household indebtedness and the rising cost of electricity.

However, economists are expecting more good news on the employment front when the latest labour force report is also released on Thursday.

They are forecasting an increase of 20,000 in the number of people employed in July, coming after several months of strong outcomes, notably in full-time employment.

Such a rise could be enough to take the jobless rate down to 5.5 per cent from 5.6 per cent, its lowest level in over four years.

The Reserve Bank will release the minutes of its August 1 board meeting on Tuesday but they are unlikely to reveal anything new given central bank governor Philip Lowe was grilled by a parliamentary committee last Friday and having released its quarterly monetary policy statement a week earlier.

Dr Lowe told the committee the average level of interest rates will be higher in the future than it is today, saying pricing on financial markets implying a greater probability of a rate rise than cut is a reasonable assumption.

Markets are predicting an increase in the record low 1.5 per cent cash rate in the second half of 2018.


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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