Weak jobs market undercuts wages

Against the background of a falling trend in employment, wages growth is at its slowest pace in 13 years and it will be a while before it recovers.

Annual growth in wages rates has slowed to a dawdling pace not seen for 13 years.

The 2.7 per cent rise in the wage price index over the year to the September quarter was the smallest since the March quarter of 2000.

The 0.5 per cent quarterly rise in the index reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday was a whisker off the lowest in the 16 year history of the bureau's data series.

The reason for the slowdown is obvious.

The labour market is weak.

Figures from the bureau last week showed the trend in employment is downward and most measures of job vacancies are at very low ebbs.

A weak labour market means less upward pressure on wages.

Wages growth staged similar slowdowns after the RBA used high interest rates to slow the economy in the mid-1990s, then again in the post-GST slump in 2000 and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008.

On each occasion, slow economic growth led to slow or negative employment growth, and with that weaker demand for labour came weakness in its price - wages.

Anyone wanting a better bargaining position when it comes to negotiating a pay rise with their current boss, or finding a more generous boss, should not get their hopes up.

Most economists don't expect the economy to get back up to a normal pace for at least another year.

Employment will pick up too, but with a delay after the economy strengthens.

Then, with a further delay, wages rates will pick up after that.

It will be a long wait.


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Source: AAP


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