Weak wages tipped to keep RBA rate on hold

Economists expect no move in the official interest rate when the RBA has its April meeting on Tuesday.

Australia's sluggish rate of wages growth is expected to convince the Reserve Bank to leave its official interest rate on hold when it holds its April board meeting on Tuesday.

Economists say the RBA is almost certain to leave the cash rate at its record low of 1.5 per cent for the 20th month in a row, with the glacial rate of improvement in the nation's pay packets the main driver of the decision.

Commonwealth Bank senior economic analyst Belinda Allen said the RBA's view of the future direction of wages growth and labour market conditions would be closely examined by market watchers for indications of when rates may go up.

The United States Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.25 per cent in March and signalled more increases could be expected on the back of recent improvements in US economic growth and unemployment numbers.

Australia's situation is not yet in line with that of the US and Ms Allen said it was "universally anticipated" that the RBA would not move on rates.

"Wages data shows still feeble growth, especially in the private sector where the large bulk of workers earn their living," Ms Allen said in a report released on Thursday.

HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said he believes the RBA will have to be convinced that wages are growing fast enough to start driving inflation higher before moving rates.

While the jobs market is improving, an accompanying increase in the participation rate - which is the number of people working or seeking work - has kept the unemployment rate relatively steady at around 5.6 per cent.

"The RBA has, so far, proven to be very patient as it waits for signs that wage growth is set to pick up," Mr Bloxham said in a research note.

However, our view remains that the labour market will tighten further, that wage growth will lift and that underlying inflation will return to the lower edge of the RBA's two to three per cent target band through 2018."

HSBC expects the RBA will lift rates in the fourth quarter of 2017/18.


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Source: AAP



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