Summer is here, but the question hovering over the season is how much of a summer we'll actually get.
That's because La Niña — the climate pattern known for pushing wetter, cooler conditions over Australia — has officially reared its head. Usually, that sparks visions of washed-out beach days, soggy camping trips, and a very wet Christmas.
But this year's event comes with a twist: several major climate agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), say this La Niña is shaping up to be weak.
The WMO estimates a 55 per cent chance that weak La Niña conditions will persist over the next three months.
So does that mean the talk of a drenched summer has been overstated? We asked the BoM what Australians should really expect over the coming months.
What La Niña usually brings — and why this one is unusual
La Niña and El Niño are phases of a climate pattern known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Typically, La Niña brings out wetter-than-average conditions, while El Niño tends to dry things out. But their impact can vary based on events, areas, and timing.
While we have officially entered a La Niña, this time, the pattern is arriving weaker, later and likely won't stick around for long.
"Our assessment is that this La Niña will persist through December 2025 and likely end in early 2026, but there is still some uncertainty in whether it will end in January 2026 or last a bit longer," the BoM told SBS News.
It's also not behaving like a textbook event.
"This La Niña appears to be weaker (in terms of its oceanic pattern) than the typical La Niña. It also has started later and is likely to end earlier than the typical La Niña," the BoM said.
Historically, weaker La Niñas have far less influence on Australian weather.
"The impact of a La Niña on Australia tends to be reasonably correlated to its strength," the BoM said. "Weak La Niñas in the past have generally not had a dominant influence over much of Australia."
That means the narrative of a stereotypically wet, cool La Niña summer doesn't fully reflect what's unfolding this year. If anything, the seasonal outlook is pointing in almost the opposite direction.
So what will summer actually look like?
Despite La Niña's rainy reputation, the BoM says large parts of Australia are more likely to see below-average rainfall this summer.
"Based on the current long-range forecast for Australia, rainfall is likely to be below average for large areas of Australia," it said.
"For much of Australia's far east, there is no clear signal in the rainfall forecast, meaning roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall. Above average rainfall is slightly favoured for parts of Cape York Peninsula and eastern Queensland."
The heat, however, is likely to be widespread. The Bureau's long-range forecast for December to February shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of Australia.
- Rainfall is likely to be above average in parts of eastern and far northern Queensland.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across more of Australia.
There will also be an increased risk of fire for parts of Victoria, western and southern WA and parts of central northern NSW, with "significant bushfires a real possibility" in January and February.
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