What does a lower $A mean for consumers?

The Australian dollar has fallen 14 US cents in four months. Here's why it's falling and what it means for consumers.

A plummeting Australian dollar might sound like a bad thing, but it's actually good news - buying a television could be more expensive but at least jobs will be easier to come by.

The Australian dollar has been in freefall for the past four months, plunging from 94 US cents in early September to a five-and-a-half year low of 80.33 US cents this week.

That's because the Aussie is losing the popularity contest against the US dollar, as the US economy strengthens, raising expectations of interest rate hikes there, JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy says.

The currency is also realigning to where it should be, given the sharp decline in commodity prices, he said.

A lower currency pushes up prices of goods and petrol for consumers, but it's good news for the economy overall, Mr Kennedy said.

"The very high level of the currency has been a big handbrake on the Australian economy over the past couple of years," he said.

"It's really weighed on the export sector, it's really weighed on tourism and those businesses that have got a large exposure to offshore competition."

A lower dollar makes Australia more attractive to international tourists and encourages Aussies to travel at home rather than abroad.

It also gives exporters a leg up, giving their goods an advantage compared to economies with higher currencies, Mr Kennedy said.

While prices of goods may go up for consumers, the economy will be in better shape, which is good for everyone.

"At the consumer level, a lower Australian dollar certainly eats into purchasing power and directly, is not overly beneficial for consumers," Mr Kennedy said.

"But given the fact that you get stronger growth, tourism, better manufacturing, that really does lift economic growth and a rising tide does lift all boats.

"The structure of the Australian economy is going to be better, you'll have a lower jobless rate, stronger growth and things will feel a bit better, which is what we've been missing in the past couple of years."

Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said the Australian dollar would pick up in the second half of the year.

The currency may reach 78 US cents in the first half of 2015 but will bounce back to finish the year at 85 cents, as the Chinese economy picks up, giving commodity prices a boost, he said.

The median forecast is for the Australian dollar to finish the year at 77 US cents, according to a recent AAP survey of currency traders.


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Source: AAP


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